پیش بینی حادثه ناشی از کار در معادن زیرزمینی - استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک

Mine accidents and injuries are complex and generally characterized by several factors starting from personal to technical, and technical to social characteristics. In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the various factors responsible for work related injuries in mines and to estimate the risk of work injury to mine workers. The prediction of work injury in mines was done by a step-by-step multivariate logistic regression modeling with an application to case study mines in India. In total, 18 variables were considered in this study. Most of the variables are not directly quantifiable. Instruments were developed to quantify them through a questionnaire type survey. Underground mine workers were randomly selected for the survey. Responses from 300 participants were used for the analysis. Four variables, age, negative affectivity, job dissatisfaction, and physical hazards, bear significant discriminating power for risk of injury to the workers, comparing between cases and controls in a multivariate situation while controlling all the personal and socio-technical variables. The analysis reveals that negatively affected workers are 2.54 times more prone to injuries than the less negatively affected workers and this factor is a more important risk factor for the case-study mines. Long term planning through identification of the negative individuals, proper counseling regarding the adverse effects of negative behaviors and special training is urgently required. Care should be taken for the aged and experienced workers in terms of their job responsibility and training requirements. Management should provide a friendly atmosphere during work to increase the confidence of the injury prone miners.