تجزیه و تحلیل رقابت از صنعت خودرو در ترکیه با استفاده از شبکه های بیزی

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relations between the factors that enable national competitive advantage and the establishment of competitive superiority in automotive industry through a comprehensive analytical model. Bayesian networks (BN) are used to investigate the associations of different factors in the automotive industry which lead to competitive advantage. The results of the study focus on building a road map for the automotive sector policy makers in their way to improve the competitiveness through scenario analysis. Using the probabilistic dependency structure of the Bayesian network all of the variables in the model can be estimated. Thus, with the proposed model the automotive industry can be analyzed as a whole system and not only in terms of single variables. Findings of the model indicate that technological developments in automotive industry can alter the nature of competition in this industry. Highlights ► With the proposed model the automotive industry can be analyzed as a whole system and not only in terms of single variables. ► Using Bayesian network all of the variables in the model can be estimated. ► Findings indicate that technological developments in automotive industry can alter the nature of competition.

The rising trends in the globalized world are the key factors that make the business environment highly dynamic and competitive (Artto, 1987). This necessitates to focus on the comparative advantage and to build up technological competences for both developed and developing countries. As also emphasized in the UNIDO project of regional Europe (2011), policy makers face increasingly complex issues related to economic, technological, environmental and thus social challenges due to globalization and recent global financial crises. Therefore, they need to have a foresight process in order to see the interrelations among the factors that shape the economy and, thus, identify various development scenarios in face of different policy options. In order to reveal the competitiveness of a country, different approaches have been used in literature. Each year, selected organizations, such as the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Institute for Management Development (IMD), apply several hundred objective and subjective indicators to assess the wealth created by the world’s nations, and subsequently publish rankings of national competitiveness. These rankings serve as benchmarks for policy-makers and other interested parties into judging the competitive success of their country within a global context. The IMD jointly with the WEF has produced listings of national competitiveness in their annual World Competitiveness Yearbook since 1989 (Sala-i-Martin & Artadi, 2004). The WEF uses three indices to analyze nations’ competitiveness levels from both macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives. The Growth Competitiveness Index (GCI), developed by McArthur and Sachs, 2001 and Blanke and Lopez-Claros, 2004 is based on critical and, for the most part, macroeconomic environmental factors that influence sustained economic growth over the medium to long-term. More recently, the Global Competitiveness Index (Blanke & Lopez-Claros, 2004) was designed to help unify the GCI and BCI, and may eventually replace them in the Global Competitiveness Reports. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is generally recognized by many countries in correctly defining competitiveness and measuring countries competitive strengths. Based on this index, released every year, in its Global Competitiveness Report, WEF measures the competitiveness of countries, providing a source of data for all sides concerned, including public and private sectors, with which they can work and create policies. When Turkey’s trend in terms of relative competitiveness is analyzed through consecutive WEF, 2005, WEF, 2006, WEF, 2007, WEF, 2008, WEF, 2009 and WEF, 2010, it can be seen that, with a significant improvement in competitive performance, Turkey moved up 18 places in the 2007–2008 Global Competitiveness Index ranking of the World Economic Forum. Turkey not only surpassed Bulgaria and Romania who became members to the EU during its 2007 expansion, but also ranked higher than Greece, Cyprus, and Malta which had joined earlier. Similarly, during the same period, Turkey also outranked two of the BRIC members, namely, Russia and Brazil. Therefore, it was believed that political reforms following the 2001 economic crisis were bearing fruit. However, the improvement in question was replaced by a dramatic fall in the 2008–2009 report where Turkey slipped down 10 places, only managing to be ranked the 63rd (Sala-i-Martin et al., 2008) (Table 1). Table 1. Turkey’s rank in GCI. Year Total number of countries Turkey’s rank 2007 131 53 2008 134 63 2009 133 61 2010 139 61 2011 143 59 Table options Turkey moved up two places in the 2009–2010 GCI thanks to a balanced performance (Sala-i Martin, Blanke, Hanouz, Geiger, & Mia, 2009). The 2010–2011 report indicates that Turkey has retained its ranking at 61. It has been pointed out that Turkey needs to intensify local competition, improve infrastructure for ports and electricity supply despite having built reasonably advanced infrastructure for roads and air travel, improve human resources through improved primary education and health systems, cut down inefficiencies in labor markets and to increase efficiency and transparency of public institutions (Sala-i Martin, Blanke, Hanouz, Geiger, & Mia, 2010). In 2011–2012 report, however, Turkey again improved her rank and became 59th through 143 economies analyzed (Sala-i-Martin, Bilbao-Osorio, Blanke, Hanous, & Geiger, 2011). In global competition, technological infrastructure, education system, public-private sector relations and economic policies are all integrated. Therefore, in dynamic markets where time becomes ever more significant, the success of businesses looking to gain competitive advantage depends on their ability both to perceive the changes around them and also to adapt to those changes in the short term. Success in an intensively competitive environment requires businesses to reduce production costs, improve quality and take the necessary steps to exceed customer expectations. However, as traditional competition becomes global, businesses fail to take the required measures on their own to become more competitive. Hence, in a globally competitive environment, national improvement has also become vital. In a country where an environment that will enable international competition has not been established, sector-based competitiveness is bound to be limited and obstacles emerge which undermine the protection and maintenance of this competitiveness. In international competition, dynamic and competitive management strategies of companies alone cannot sufficiently improve their chances. Therefore, businesses need to utilize and be supported by countries international competitiveness. In Turkey, a part of the Turkish market in labor intensive sectors has been lost to Asian economies rising due to cheap labor. Also in capital intensive sectors Turkey has lost a part of its market to countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary, the new members of the EU (EU-12 countries). These losses happened particularly in capital intensive markets such as the automotive industry where direct foreign investment has shifted from Turkey to EU-12 countries recently. In order to get a complete look of the current state of the Turkish automotive industry and to prevent further losses, reasons for these losses need to be explored and exclusively designed long-term industrial and export strategies need to be implemented. In this paper, automotive industry is selected as the target sector to foresight its future developments that might occur in Turkey in face of competitiveness. Hence, this research should act as a guide to decision makers on analyzing the essential factors in automotive industry to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. The main reason behind the choice of the automotive industry is that it is one of the leading industries in all industrialized countries. The reason for the driving-locomotive effect of this industry is that it is closely related to other industries in the economy. Automotive industry is the main buyer of iron-steel, petrochemical, and tires industries and the driving force behind the technological development in these industries. All kinds of motor vehicles needed by the tourism, infrastructure, transport and agriculture industries are produced by this sector. Therefore, any changes in the industry deeply affect the economy as a whole. The world’s automotive industry, with around 70 million units yearly production is essential to the working of the global economy and is an important contributor to the well being of the societies. The automotive production chain has a strategic role in Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Turkey on economic basis regarding its contribution to the national production and industrial development, employment (direct and indirect), and the level of technology enhancement. The model developed in this study takes into account the variables used in comparison of the countries by WEF. A preliminary version of this model is prepared for a report sponsored by Automotive Manufacturer Association-OSD, TÜSİAD-Sabancı University Competitiveness Forum-REF and Federation of Industrial Associations-Sedefed (Ulengin, Onsel, Aktaş, & Kabak, 2010) The second section analyses the current situation of the automotive sector in Turkey. The third section explains the steps of the proposed model as well as the guide map derived from it for the Turkish Automotive Industry. Finally conclusions and further suggestions are given.

The world has entered a very significant period of change. Importance of economic, political, technological, socio-cultural, ecological and demographic changes has been growing, and the success of any industry in a country is no longer possible through that industry’s own means and has grown more closely associated with that country’s global competitiveness. The model in this study has been constructed in order to determine to what extent the factors of global competition would affect the automotive industry’s competitiveness in particular. Automotive industry is extremely significant and strategic with its high value added, high employment, competitive nature, many technologies that it employs and its multiplier effect on the technological development of the country. Therefore, special attention must be given to the automotive industry. The results of the study focus on building a road map for automotive sector competitiveness through scenario analysis. To achieve this, several analyses can be conducted similar to the ones that have been done in the previous section. Besides, the model helps us to analyze the model not only in terms of single variables but as a whole. That is, the effect of several variables can be analyzed also. According to results, the efficiency of automotive sector in a country depends basically on the levels of local supplier quality, availability of latest technologies and firm–level technology absorption in that country. As can also be seen in the analysis conducted in the previous section, although the availability of latest technologies, for example, has an indirect effect on automotive related variables, it plays a basic role in increasing the level of efficiency of the sector. This proposed model is expected to reduce the uncertainty about the relation between national competitive advantage and the establishment of competitive superiority in automotive industry. The decision makers, as a result of a detailed analysis, will be able to analyze very easily the impact of any policy that they are planning to adopt over the automotive sector. As a further suggestion, this analysis should be repeated each year in order to see the results of the policies as well as the changes in the perceptions of experts. Additionally, this analysis should be expanded to other important sectors in order to provide a guide on how to increase their comparative advantage.