خطر روش ارزیابی ماموریت گرا برای آتش کشتی نیروی دریایی ناشی از انفجار بدون تماس با استفاده از شبکه های بیزی

In order to understand the fire damages on warship caused by non-contact explosion, a mission-oriented risk assessment methodology was developed in this paper. Firstly, an eight-step flow chart was proposed to analyze the fire effect on a warship, and the main factors, which determined the fire consequences, were summarized. Then based on the specialist marking methods and statistical data, the fire damage on warship could be calculated by using Bayesian Networks, which is a nice tool to assess the risk for complicated system. Finally, the methodology was applied a hypothetical ship with five compartments. The results show that fire intensity mainly depends on the fuel load and the fire damage depends on the function occupancy rate. Moreover, the result of sensitivity analysis indicates that fire damage could be effectively reduced by some ways, such as decrease leakage caused by shock, shorten the response time of fire detection and so on.