الحاق سازمان تجارت جهانی، منطقه تجارت آزاد "بزرگ چین" و یکپارچگی اقتصادی در سراسر تنگه تایوان

This paper evaluates the impact of China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession on trade and economic relation across the Taiwan Strait and its implications for rest of the world by a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with import-embodied technology transfer and specification of tariff rate quotas (TRQ) for agricultural products. The simulation results predict that China will likely emerge as one of the world's largest manufacturing centers as it integrates into the world economy. Taiwan will likely become an upstream supplier for China's massive manufacturing production and gain more economically by further integrating its economy with China via a “Greater China” free-trade area (FTA) after its WTO entry. It will further reduce the cost of vertical integration among manufacturing industries across the Taiwan Strait and enable both China and Taiwan to become stronger competitors in the global manufactured goods market.