طرح سیاست در یک مدل پویا از صنعت نوپا

This paper takes the neoclassical infant industry model, allows agents to respond to future expectations, and reveals previously unexplained relationships between protection and outcome. Policy, which projects to protect the industry until international competitiveness, may not necessarily succeed, consistent to the mixed empirical evaluations. To guarantee success, protection has to last longer. However, for success to be an equilibrium, protection can last shorter. Decline after take off is also an equilibrium. When adjustment speed is bounded, increasing the protection rate is not isomorphic to decreasing its duration. In policy design, adjustment speed, critical industry scale, and policy duration are all relevant.