حضور زودهنگام اختلال تفکر به عنوان نشانه آینده نگر از اختلال روانی

The purpose of this study was to assess whether premorbid signs, such as thought disorder, could predict the subsequent manifestation of psychiatric disorders. A group of 75 adoptees at high genetic risk for schizophrenia and 96 low-risk adoptees without any psychiatric disorder at the initial assessment were assessed blindly with the Thought Disorder Index (TDI). Their psychiatric status was re-assessed according to DSM-III-R criteria in a re-interview 11 years later and based on available registers 16 years later. High scores on several TDI variables at the initial assessment predicted a psychiatric disorder of all adoptees at follow-up. Prediction was statistically unsuccessful among the high-risk adoptees because of the small number of cases, but high scores at the 0.50 severity level did predict mental disorders among the low-risk adoptees.