تجارت با واسطه انتقال بیوتکنولوژی و جذب موثر بر آن: یک برنامه برای بخش جنگل های ایالات متحده

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products.

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products.

In this paper, we simulated a 0.63% TFP improvement in the U.S. in the logging sector and studied regional disparities in capturing transmitted productivity gains. We found that the technological progress can have different impacts on productivity improvements of trading partners depending on the absorptive capacity and structural similarity of the source and the destination regions. The simulation results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. logging sector and its spillover to other regions result in a significant increase in global timber production and global welfare. The role of absorption capacity and structural similarity in capturing technical change is also evident. The higher values of capture parameters in the U.S., Canada and WEU allow these regions to realize a higher percentage increase in the productivity growth and sectoral output. On the other hand, the relatively laggard regions, SEA and SAM, experience relatively less pronounced productivity improvement. Higher skill intensity induced absorptive capacity facilitates transfer of biotechnological inventions across regions that are structurally congruent to each other. Given the increase in productivity and output growth, changes in price relativities between the regions alter the trading scenario. In particular, the U.S., Canada and WEU experience declines in relative prices of exportable as compared to other regions. This is reflected in changes in regional terms of trade, which moved in favor of the U.S. and Canada. This suggests that public policy promoting technical education and human capital formation are crucial for harnessing the potential benefits of biotechnology research in both the source and recipient regions. It seems that there is no disagreement about the potential of biotechnological innovations in furthering productivity. In the face of fixed land supply, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet growing consumer demands for forest products.