اثرات منطقه ای قوانین زیست محیطی و تغییرات فنی در بخش جنگل ایالات متحده: تجزیه و تحلیل CGE چند منطقه ای

In this paper, a multiregional computable general equilibrium model, which divides the United States (US) into four broad geographical regions and aggregates other nations into the rest of the world, is used to analyze the effects associated with environmental and technological policy shifts in the US forest sector. In particular, we analyze the impacts of: (i) a 20% reduction in the harvest of timber in the Pacific Northwest relative to other regions; (ii) a 5% increase in the cost of timber production in the US South relative to other regions due to environmental regulations; and (iii) a 2% Total Factor Productivity (TFP) improvement in the South and 1% TFP improvement in the other three US regions. The results show that a 20% reduction in timber harvest induces a shift in regional production and visible gains in welfare, especially in the US South. Furthermore, higher technical progress in the South as compared to the other three regions contributes to an overall increase in forest products’ output and welfare in the US and the rest of the world. On the contrary, an increase in the cost of production in the US South, in response to additional environmental regulations, is shown to reduce welfare for the US and globally. Results of this analysis help forest companies and landowners make production decisions and guide policy makers toward developing appropriate policies to further forest conservation and economic development in the US.

Historically, the United States (US) maintained a comparative advantage in industrial wood production based on the vast coverage of old growth forestlands. In the recent past, however, growing environmental concerns has ushered in new legislation regarding conservation and use of forestlands. On the one hand, there is growing pressure to limit timber harvest on national forestlands. For example, regulations for protecting the northern spotted owl and restrictions on the use of public lands in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region has led to declining timber removals, shifts in timber production to the US South, and higher imports from Canada. More recently, congressional bill HR 1494 entitled the ‘National Forest Protection and Restoration Act’ proposed the elimination of commercial logging activity on all national forestlands. Further restrictions on timber production are possible, given increasing environmental concerns and associated regulations which are expected to increase production costs. On the other hand, technological change via advances in forest biotechnology and increasing investments in intensive forest management are improving forest productivity.

This paper analyses the regional implications for three important potential forest policy changes across four geographical regions in the United States. We employ a multi-regional, multi-sectoral CGE model and customize it such that it is suitable for our analysis. The analysis shows that all potential forest policy changes will affect the demand and supply of logging products output, both regionally and globally. Simulation experiments show that in the case of productivity improvements, national welfare improves. National welfare deteriorates, however, in the case of a 20% reduction in timber harvest in the PNW and a 5% increase in the cost of logging production in the South. The 20% drop in timber harvest in the PNW will shift production to the South and other regions in the US and cause a decline in welfare largely in the PNW. On the other hand, a 5% increase in the cost of production in the South leads to a fall in regional output. However, productivity improvements in all regions would promote output growth and increase trade everywhere for forest products.