وابستگی جوانان و بهره وری کل عوامل

Recent literature shows empirical support for an effect of demographic age structure on economic growth. This literature does not give attention to the possibility that age structure might also have an effect on total factor productivity. Much of the recent literature on economic growth has stressed that an understanding of cross-country differences in output per worker is needed. That literature argues that the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker is differences in total factor productivity. This paper finds empirical evidence in cross-country data for the thesis that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces ‘residual’ growth, which measures total factor productivity growth. For this reason, the paper demonstrates that age structure has an effect on the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker.

Using cross-country regressions, Mankiw et al. (1992) find that the neoclassical growth model, when augmented by human capital accumulation, explains 78% of the differences among global outputs per worker. Meanwhile, Young (1995) uses growth accounting calculations to determine that input accumulation accounts for most of the East Asian growth miracle. However, there has been recent opposition to these findings. Many believe that input accumulation cannot explain the majority of cross-country differences of output per worker. In this thesis, the level of the ‘residual’ and therefore total factor productivity (TFP) must account for the differences. A ‘residual’ represents the part of international output differences that input cannot explain.1

This paper demonstrated empirical support for the thesis that the youth dependency ratio has a negative effect on TFP growth using cross-country data of the world economy. In the regressions, TFP growth was measured with residual growth. In addition, the paper found empirical support for the thesis that a high youth dependency ratio will reduce aggregate savings, and correspondingly, that declining aggregate savings will reduce TFP growth. It is argued that the latter effect is due to reduced funding of research and development or imitation of ideas, as aggregate savings at home declines, while many countries have limited access to the international capital market.