سرمایه سازمانی، فن آوری و کاهش بهره وری

There is evidence linking the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s to changing patterns of technological adoption related to the spread of information technology (IT). Notably, IT appears to require plant-level reorganization for its full implementation. I develop a general equilibrium model in which organizational capital plays a central role in establishment dynamics, and study its transition path after a shock in the form of an incompatibility between new technologies and previously accumulated plant-level expertise. The behavior of the model is consistent with the structure of the slowdown, as well as the subsequent resurgence. Further applications are discussed.

The dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) are a key unexplained element of macroeconomics. Research on the topic often draws a link between productivity change and patterns of technology adoption. For example, the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s and the ensuing expansion of the late 1990s have been linked to the widespread diffusion of information technology (IT). There is evidence that the adoption of IT required new forms of organization at the plant level to have its full impact on productivity. This raises a question: Could the degree of compatibility between new technologies and old plant-level expertise be a factor behind aggregate TFP dynamics?

It is worth pausing to summarize what the model suggests are important elements of a theory of TFP dynamics. First, aggregate TFP is the composite of the productivities of the universe of establishments. Second, productivity is not purely exogenous, but is the outcome of plant-level decisions. Third, heterogeneity is a potentially important element of these dynamics. If the response to a shock differs across establishments in terms of timing as well as magnitude, the persistence of TFP and not just its level will be a function of heterogeneity—a point made in a different context by Michelacci (2004). Business cycle theory has emphasized fluctuations in TFP as a source of high-frequency time-series variation. At the same time, a theory of TFP fluctuations is lacking. In particular, technological explanations of productivity shocks typically interpret technology in terms of scientific knowledge: such interpretations face the challenge of accounting for observed decreases in TFP. The model describes a mechanism whereby the dynamics of organizational capital and technical change can lead to prolonged slowdowns in productivity. The extent to which higher frequency fluctuations might be attributable to changes in the degree of compatibility between old expertise and new techniques is an open question.