امر به معروف در مقابل الهام: درس هایی از اقتصاد به سرعت در حال توسعه

The ‘perspiration versus inspiration’ debate is revisited by studying the Malaysian manufacturing sector. Estimating a stochastic production frontier model using a new panel data set of Malaysia's 26 three-digit manufacturing industries from 1970 to 2002, the study confirms previous findings that inspiration in the form of total factor productivity growth is lacking while perspiration in the form of factor accumulation is driving manufacturing output. But more importantly, the causal links between perspiration and inspiration, and how it is related to total factor productivity growth, technical efficiency and technological progress are discussed. This provides the basis to evaluate current policies and suggest how they can be made effective in sustaining growth in the Malaysian manufacturing sector.

Since the mid-1990s, there has been a proliferation of studies analysing the success as well as casting doubt on the sustainability of growth in the East Asian miracle economies. In particular, the GDP growth of these economies was found to be driven by the perspiration factor of input accumulation rather than the inspiration factor of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. While this raised concern regarding the continued growth of these economies, new endogenous growth theories have been useful in explaining these countries’ ongoing success despite their setback due to the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis. It is thus timely to revisit the issue of perspiration versus inspiration, and discuss the policy implications for sustaining growth in rapidly developing second-tier newly industrialising economies aspiring to join the miracle economies.1

The perspiration factor given by factor accumulation accounted for at least 80% of manufacturing gross output growth and the inspiration factor of TFP growth was not only on a decline but it was less than 1.5% on average over 1970–2002. The latter was caused by rapidly rising technical inefficiency outweighing the declining gains from technological progress. While some inspiration (technological progress) is perspiration-driven, this is unsustainable because the high rate of perspiration is crowding out another form of inspiration (technical efficiency). Thus Malaysia's past strategy of focusing on factor accumulation has led to short-term gains provided by technological progress from the import of capital and intermediate inputs. In order to sustain growth, it is not optimal to focus on perspiration or inspiration exclusively. This was realised in the 1990s and policies favouring a mix of the two elements were implemented. However, this has yet to show any improvements in productivity growth.