اثرات بهره وری در اشتغال تولید مکزیک

We examine the effects of labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) on employment across 25 Mexican manufacturing industries from 1984 to 2000. Employing panel data methods, several interesting findings emerge. First, we observe a strong and positive impact of NAFTA on employment. Second, productivity exerts a procyclical, positive effect on employment but this effect becomes smaller after NAFTA. Third, partitions of our sample according to capital-labor intensity suggest that industries which are less capital-intensive were affected negatively on impact by NAFTA but that productivity impacted employment positively after NAFTA. In contrast, more capital-intensive industries display these results in reverse.

Under standard approaches to the demand for labor with its marginal product (and the wage rate) on the vertical axis against the amount of labor (L) on the horizontal axis, an increase in productivity or in capital stock (if complement to labor) leads to a shift outward of the labor demand curve (see Abel, Bernanke, & Croushore, 2008, Chapter 3). If we assume that the labor supply curve is perfectly elastic, a shift upwards in labor demand will lead to higher employment without change in wages. Studies examining labor productivity in Mexico have indeed concluded that “the disappointing wage performance has occurred despite the fact that Mexican worker's productivity has increased since NAFTA took effect.” Polaski (2004, p. 9).

This paper examines the role of productivity changes in the Mexican manufacturing labor market. The evidence suggests considerable variability among the productivity measures used. Controlling for factors such as sector specific effects, the business cycle, real wages and the implementation of NAFTA, the panel data approach indicates that increases in TFP and VA/L ratios have had positive effects on employment. Plus, there are some indirect and slightly negative effects in the post-NAFTA era. A similar trend is observed for the effect of the capital stock on employment, suggesting a lower complementarity between capital and labor after NAFTA. For the aggregate 25 industries in the sample, NAFTA has had an unambiguously positive and more than proportional effect on employment. Consistent with Chang and Hong (2006), who estimated employment effects of technology shocks for most of U.S. manufacturing, our estimates suggest a net positive impact of TFP on employment.