عوامل مؤثر بر بهره وری در بلند مدت منطقه ای با سرریز جغرافیایی: نقش R & D، سرمایه انسانی و زیرساخت های عمومی

In this paper we estimate the long-run relationship between total factor productivity, R&D, human capital and public infrastructure between 1980 and 2001 across Italian regions. We take advantage of recent developments of panel cointegration techniques that control for endogeneity of regressors to estimate cointegration vectors. Empirical evidence shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium between productivity level and the three kinds of capital; among them, human capital turns out to have the strongest impact on productivity. Regional productivity is found also to be positively affected by R&D activity and public infrastructure of neighboring regions. Finally, results of the Granger-causality tests support the hypothesis that human capital and infrastructure Granger-cause productivity in the long-run while the opposite is not true; only for R&D stock is the bi-directional causality found.

It is widely known that the Italian economy is affected by strong territorial disparities. GDP per capita in the South is around 60% of that in the Centre and North, labor productivity is about 80%. Even though during the last decade the economic gap between the two areas has narrowed slightly, differences in standards of living among Italian regions remain profound. In the face of this evidence, it is understandable why regional growth is still at the centre of empirical research, and how reducing regional disparities remains a central question in Italian economic policy. The persistence of geographical disparities in Italy motivated also this paper that investigates further the determinants of regional productivity.

The empirical literature stimulated by the endogenous growth theories is large. In this paper we have made a step forward by analyzing simultaneously the impact of three crucial engines of growth, for the first time altogether, on the level of TFP of Italian regions. This allowed us to compare the different contribution of each factor on growth and single out the main policy-relevant instruments to promote regional development. We have also assessed the role of geographical spillovers verifying whether R&D and public capital stocks in one region affect productivity of the close regions. Our contribution to the existing literature is on the methodological ground as well: we have estimated long-run relationships among the variables in level using recent panel cointegration method and we have run Granger causality tests to explore direction of causality among regressors and productivity.