تجارت ناشی از تغییرات تکنولوژیکی: تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج اقتصادی و زیست محیطی

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963–2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.

Technological progress allows standards of living in the world to increase. International trade plays an important role in technological change (e.g., Grossman and Helpman, 1991).2 This study extends the traditional measures of technological change to take account of the production of undesirable by-products (i.e., environmental pollution), which may lead to decreases in the level of human welfare. Then, we test whether there is significant trade-induced technological progress, and whether international trade is able to encourage the efficient reduction of the negative externalities as well as faster traditional technological progress.

A change in trade openness may stimulate technological change that reverses the pollution haven effect (Maria and Smulders, 2004). This study contributes to the literature by considering a simultaneous reduction of pollution emissions with the expansion of good outputs. We investigate how the changes in trade openness are related to induced innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also emissions saving. We measure technological change in terms of the economic benefits of technologies by using a production possibility frontier. In particular, a directional distance function is applied to measure technological change for 76 countries over the period 1963–2000. The technological change effect is decomposed into its exogenous and endogenous effects by trade. We find significant trade-induced technological change, and that the size of the trade-induced technological change is about one third of the overall technological change. Finally, we analyze the biased technological change that provides important implications for the policy debate about the effect of trade openness on the environment. We find trade-induced technological changes are GDP saving and emissions augmenting. Therefore, there might be international technology spillovers in market output. However, pollution-saving technological diffusion is not induced by trade. Instead, we find increases in the relative supply of pollution from trade openness. Therefore, trade-induced technological progress does not internalize negative externalities. This paper uses macroeconomic data to measure the trade induced environmental and economic outcomes. Future study on industry level, using the variety of economic indicators, and covering different time periods, would be a step further for forthcoming research to test whether trade and technological performance have been able to significantly or systematically affect the environment.