ارزیابی کمی کاهش در حساب جاری ایالات متحده

Low frequency changes in the U.S. current account can be understood in terms of the influence of differences in productivity growth rates across time and across countries using standard growth theory. In particular, the secular decline is primarily driven by the increase in the U.S. TFP growth rate relative to its trading partners. Differences in population growth rates or fiscal policy have no significant effects on the low frequency changes in the U.S. current account.

The net national saving rate and the current account balance have been declining in the U.S. since the 1960s. Fig. 1 shows that the saving rate has declined from an average of 15% in 1960s to 10% in 1980s and 8.6% in 1990s while the current account balance (CA) has declined from a small surplus to a 5% deficit in 2004.

This paper shows that differences in productivity growth rates across time and across countries play a major role in accounting for the low frequency changes in the U.S. current account. Our results contradict some of the findings in the literature that highlight the role of demographics leading to current account imbalances. According to the numerical results, differences in the population growth rates and fiscal policies across countries do not have a significant impact on the secular trend in the U.S. current account balance once differences in TFP growth rates are incorporated. Nevertheless, our findings indicate that domestic factors, such as the U.S. population growth rate, depreciation rate and the TFP growth rate all play a role in accounting for the trend and the fluctuations observed in the U.S. saving rate.