تجزیه و تحلیل تجربی از کند شدن بهره وری تولیدی سری لانکا

This paper analyses empirically the changes in Sri Lanka's manufacturing productivity during a period of regime shift from import substituting industrialisation to export-oriented industrialisation. We have used a varying coefficients stochastic production frontier model on a balanced panel data set to shed light on the effects of trade liberalisation on Total Factor Productivity which incorporates both changes in Technical Efficiency and Technical Progress. The results of the empirical validation of the stochastic production frontier model reveal that there were two distinct phases of output and productivity growth under each of the two trade liberalisation episodes that occurred during 1978–88 and 1988–97, respectively. The analysis carried out in this paper decomposing Total Factor Productivity into Technical Progress and Technical Efficiency also reveals that during early years of each episode, perspiration or factor inputs was the driving force of increased output growth giving way to ‘inspiration’ or technical progress as each phase matured. The stochastic production frontier empirics reported in this paper together with negative feedback effects emanating from the political turmoil and the prolonged ethnic conflict virtually brought the growth of foreign direct investment to a grinding halt in late 1980s, when the election of new right-wing government appears to have given a shot in the arm to overcome the paralysis of technical progress that seem to have contributed to the productivity slow-down in Sri Lanka's manufacturing sector in the eve of the new millennium.

The objective of this paper is first to investigate the productivity gains achieved by the manufacturing sector in Sri Lanka after policy reforms in 1977 when Sri Lanka shifted from an import substituting industrialisation (ISI) policy to an export-oriented industrialisation (EOI) policy. These policy reforms were aimed at encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) which brought in the magic package of technology, export marketing and new management practices that enhanced technical efficiency and productivity while cutting down on x-inefficiency. The enhancement of manufacturing industry productivity through increase in technical efficiency and technical progress was vital to the sharpening of Sri Lanka's competitive edge manufacturing exports after 1977.

This paper has analysed the productivity growth performance of Sri Lanka's manufacturing industries during the post trade liberalisation period in order to provide new policy directions for manufacturing industry in the new millennium. First, the output growth of manufacturing industries was estimated using a newer approach, namely, the varying coefficient stochastic production frontier model and then the output growth was decomposed into input growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using the same process, for the first time for Sri Lanka, the TFP growth was decomposed into technical efficiency (TE) and technical progress (TP) in order to provide more insights to the policy debate on manufacturing productivity. The empirical analysis was carried out using a panel data set covering 27 industries over 20 years from 1978 to 1997.