تاثیر عامل بهره وری کل و شوک های صادرات برروی اقتصادهای کوچک با بیکاری

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a supply side shock and a demand side shock, which hit an open economy with unemployment. The supply side shock is modeled as a reduction in total factor productivity, whereas the demand side shock is caused by a drop in exports. The model builds upon the small one-sector two-good open economy framework described in Turnovsky (2000, chapter 11.3). In contrast to this standard framework, in which Walrasian labor markets are assumed, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced, and unemployment results from time consuming and costly matching of vacancies with searching agents. Using a plausible calibration of the model, the dynamic adjustments of unemployment, output, and other economic key variables are analyzed. We find that a negative export shock primarily has effects on consumption and welfare, but not on unemployment and output, whereas the supply side shock leads to considerable responses of unemployment, output, consumption and welfare. If both shocks together hit the economy, the changes in consumption and welfare almost double.

The 2007–2009 global financial crisis, which many economists view as the worst financial crisis since the one related to the Great Depression in 1930s, started 2007 with the burst of the USA housing bubble which quickly damaged financial institutions globally. The financial crisis escalated in September 2008 and has provoked an unprecedented contraction of economic activity as credit supply fell (“credit crunch”) and international trade declined. Industrial production plummeted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and continued to fall rapidly in the first part of 2009. Global GDP is estimated to have contracted by 6.25% (annualized) in the fourth quarter of 2008 and to have fallen almost as fast in the first quarter of 2009 (see IMF, 2009a, chapter 1). In 2009, output in advanced economies contracted by 3.2% (see IMF, 2010, Table A1).

In this paper we have analyzed the impacts of TFP and export shocks on the economic performance of an open economy. The analysis is based on the well-known semi-small open economy model of the Turnovsky and Sen (1991) type. The key feature of the economy is that the labor market is non-Walrasian and suffers from frictions. Unemployment emerges as matching of job vacancies with searching agents is time-consuming and costly. Because of the model's complex dynamic structure, we resorted to numerical simulations, enabling us to analyze the short-run dynamics and the steady-state adjustments. We calibrated the model to replicate some structural key characteristics of OECD countries.