اختلاف مالی و بهره وری کل عوامل :اثرات حسابداری واقعی بر بحران های مالی

Financial crises in emerging economies are accompanied by a large fall in total factor productivity. We explore the role of financial frictions in exacerbating the misallocation of resources and explaining this drop in TFP. We build a two-sector model of a small open economy with a working capital constraint on the purchase of intermediate goods. The model is calibrated to Mexico before the 1995 crisis and subjected to an unexpected shock to interest rates. The financial friction generates an endogenous fall in TFP and output and can explain more than half of the fall in TFP and 74 percent of the fall in GDP per worker.

The financial crises of the last decade in emerging economies have typically been accompanied by large falls in total factor productivity. As Calvo et al. (2006) show, GDP in these sudden stop episodes declined on average by 10 percent, the bulk of which can be attributed to a drop in TFP.1 Investigating the forces behind these movements in total factor productivity is crucial to understand the real effects of financial

Accounting for the real effects of a financial crisis without relying on exogenous technology shocks is a difficult task. Previous attempts in the literature indicate the need for adding some type of frictions to standard dynamic general equilibrium models to generate a transmission mechanism from a purely financial crisis to real activity. In this paper we explore the role of a particular financial friction, a working capital constraint on the purchase of intermediate goods. We show that this constraint provides a powerful mechanism for generating a decline in output following a sudden spike in interest rates. This mechanism works by exacerbating a static misallocation of inputs in a way that generates a sharp decline in measured TFP. Our model also explains the real exchange rate depreciation and the current account reversal observed in these episodes. Adding frictions to the reallocation of capital and labor across sectors make the model consistent with the sectoral drops in output.