تکامل تولید خوک و منابع بالقوه برای رشد آینده در چین

Following reforms to the market, China’s hog industry has developed rapidly, however, with social and economic transitions, China’s hog industry is facing challenges which might restrict long-term growth in production. This paper analyzes the changes in regional scale, organization, input factors, and technological progress for China’s hog production over the last few decades. The paper seeks to reveal the sources of hog production growth and provide some suggestions for future development of the hog industry. To achieve these aims, the paper uses stochastic frontier production functions and the Malmquist index to measure total factor productivity (TFP) in the hog industry and decompose TFP into technical efficiency; technological progress; scale efficiency; and allocative efficiency using data for 25 provinces from 1980 to 2008. The results show firstly that; the TFP of hog production increased by 64.3% from 1980 to 2008, and allocative efficiency and scale efficiency improvements played a key role in this TFP growth. In contrast, technical efficiency and technical progress have changed little over this period. Secondly, TFP’s contribution to output was 39.7%, it being less than that of factor inputs to output. Thirdly, the results suggest that the growth of China’s pork production depends mostly on the increase in the quantity of factor inputs, especially feed. As a consequence, the key to ensuring long-term and stable development of China’s hog production would seem to involve focusing on enhancing total factor productivity and changing the pattern of production growth.

Total pork consumption has increased strongly as income has grown and the market for pork as a staple food has developed in China (Huang and Rozelle, 1998 and Zhang et al., 2005) for example, urban per capita pork consumption increased significantly from 16.7 kg in 2000 to 20.5 kg in 2009 – an increase of 22.8% (CSY, 2010). The role of urbanization can be seen clearly when we consider that the urban population increased from 459.06 million in 2000 to 621.86 million in 2009 and the effect on total urban pork consumption was an increase from 7.67 million metric tones in 2000 to 12.75 million metric tones in 2009, an increase of 66.3%. Furthermore, rural meat consumption may have also increased with income growth and the development of markets see Huang and Rozelle (1998) who found that market development has an impact on food consumption behavior. They conclude that if rural households purchased 100% of their foodstuffs via markets, the income elasticity for grain would fall from 0.85 to 0.51 and for meat would rise from 0.35 to 0.85. This suggests that market development is an important factor in increasing meat consumption in China. By way of example, rural per capita rural pork consumption has increased from 5.2 kg in 1978 to 13.6 kg in 2009 (CSY, 2010).

Hog production over the last three decades in China has experienced dramatic changes in the patterns of growth both in terms of hog production and TFP. To understand the dynamics of hog production and TFP changes, we first described the evolution of hog production. We then used stochastic frontier analysis to decompose TFP into technical efficiency, technological change, scale efficiency and allocative efficiency to observe how and what drives TFP changes over time for China’s hog sector. Finally, we decomposed hog production growth into input growth and TFP growth to measure the contribution shares of both inputs and TFP to hog production growth and to observe how and what drives hog production growth in China. Based on the estimated results, the following conclusions and implications can be drawn.