تجارت و بهره وری: فرضیه خودانتخابی و یا یادگیری بوسیله صادرات در هند

Recent literature tried to explain the Indian growth miracle in different ways, ranging from trade liberalization to industrial reforms. Using data on Indian manufacturing firms, this paper analyzes the relationship between firm's productivity and export market participation during 1991–2004. While it provides evidence of the self-selection hypothesis by showing that more productive firms become exporters, the results do not show that entry into export markets enhances productivity. The paper examines the explanation of self selection hypothesis for total factor productivity differences across 33,510 exporting and non-exporting firms. It uses propensity score matching to test the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. In line with the prediction of recent heterogeneous firm models of international trade, the main finding of the paper is: more productive firms become exporters but it is not the case that learning by exporting is a channel fuelling growth in Indian manufacturing.

Exporters tend to outperform non-exporters. The direction of causality – productivity increases exports or exports enhances productivity – within this relationship is, however, still under discussion. Do more productive firms within an industry export? What are the determinants behind different trade patterns within an industry? How are these differences in trade behavior related to productivity differences among firms? This paper analyzes these questions empirically for a sample of firm data from the manufacturing industry in India, a country that has not yet been well investigated from this perspective. There are two alternative, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses on why exporters can be expected to be more productive than non-exporting firms (see Bernard and Jensen, 1999 and Bernard and Wagner, 1997): self-selection or learning-by-exporting.

Economists have argued that “openness to trade” increases productivity and stimulates growth. They viewed participation in export markets as a prerequisite for economic growth in developing countries. However, neither the theoretical studies nor the empirical cross-country analyses have reached a consensus on the channels through which exports enhances economic growth This paper examines the question of whether firms self-select into the export market using an Indian firm-level panel dataset of balance sheets and income statements spanning 14 years (1991–2004) and covering 33,510 domestically-owned manufacturing companies categorized by sectors. The analysis takes place in three primary steps. First, we estimate exporter premia, which measure the extent to which exporters outperform non-exporters in terms of TFP, capital, sales and unit labor cost. We find that Indian exporters are larger (in terms of sales), employ more capital, have lower unit labor costs and higher productivities than non-exporters. Second, we examine whether firms that become exporters already have their desirable characteristics prior to entering the export market. We find that firms that will ultimately become exporters perform better than non-exporters. Third, we examine (i) whether firms prepare for exporting by consciously choosing to undertake productivity-increasing activities and (ii) whether firm productivity enhances following export market participation. We do not find evidence for this preparation or improvement hypotheses.