تاثیر سیاست های مالی در مدل CGE موقتی برای آفریقای جنوبی

This paper uses an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model to investigate the consequences of an expansive fiscal policy designed to accelerate economic growth in South Africa. A key contribution is made to existing literature on the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in African economies. To the best of our knowledge, no published study has empirically analyzed the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of an open, middle-income sub-Saharan African economy like South Africa using an integrated intertemporal model with such disaggregated production structure. The paper shows that an expansive fiscal policy would have a temporary impact on gross domestic product (GDP) but would translate into higher debt relative to GDP. Using increased taxation to finance the additional spending would lessen this impact but would also negatively affect macroeconomic variables. Increased investment spending would improve long-term GDP, under any financing scheme, and would decrease debt-to-GDP ratio as well as deficit-to-GDP ratio. This outcome is driven by the positive impact infrastructure has on total factor productivity. Sensitivity analysis shows that these conclusions are qualitatively similar for wide values of the elasticity of the total factor productivity to infrastructure. In fact, the conclusions hold even when comparing different financing schemes.

Increases in government expenditure can benefit the economy by affecting the level of income and its distribution. This can influence people's wages and returns to capital thereby affecting saving and investment, thus potentially boosting economic growth. However, increased spending, ceteris paribus, will translate into a greater debt, which might not be sustainable in the long run. Indeed, if the government increases its spending, it might need to either reduce them in the future or increase taxes in order to get back to its original debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. To evaluate the impact of such policies, an intertemporal model is constructed and applied to South Africa. In such a model, firms and households have a forward-looking behavior and thus take into account all future prices in their investment and consumption decisions. By taking this approach, major contributions to existing literature on the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in African economies is made. To the best of our knowledge, no published study has empirically analyzed the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of an open, middle-income sub-Saharan African economy like South Africa's using an integrated intertemporal model with such rich production disaggregation. It is believed that this approach can provide important insights on the fiscal constraints and their impact on the economy as a whole.

This paper builds and uses an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa with elaborated government features. Simulations have focussed on the intertemporal impact of increased current and investment spending. Results show that an expansive fiscal policy would have short run positive impact on GDP but would translate into a greater debt to GDP ratio. Financing increased spending through taxation, direct or indirect, would mitigate this impact but would also have a negative short run impact on macroeconomic variables. Increased investment spending would improve long run GDP, under any financing scheme, and would decrease debt-to-GDP ratio as well as deficit-to-GDP ratio. The lessons are not only valuable for South Africa but for developing countries where considerable attention is being given to the use of expansive fiscal policy for economic growth and the creation of jobs.