تجزیه و تحلیل یک سیستم خنک کننده ترکیبی، حرارتی و سیستم قدرت مدل تحت استراتژی عامل های مختلف با ورودی و مدل عدم قطعیت داده ها

Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) system models have been used by many researchers to compare their performance with conventional systems. However, decisions based on the results of computer simulations need to take into account the uncertainty of these results to get insight into the level of confidence in the predictions. This paper presents an analysis of a CCHP system model under different operating strategies with input and model data uncertainty. However, the uncertainties that underlie the variation in input parameters such as the thermal load, natural gas prices and electricity prices are not readily available. Additionally, engine performance uncertainty can be difficult to characterize because of the nonlinearity of engine efficiency curves. This paper presents practical and novel approaches to estimating the uncertainty in these and other input parameters. A case study using a small office building located in Atlanta, GA, is described to illustrate the importance of the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in CCHP system performance predictions, and how the primary energy consumption, operational cost, and carbon dioxide emissions are affected by the uncertainty associated with the model input parameters.

The term CCHP describes all electrical power generation systems that utilize recoverable waste heat for space heating, cooling, and domestic hot water purposes. In a typical CCHP system, electricity is generated on-site from the combustion of a fuel source in an electrical generation set (prime mover and generator). This combustion produces recoverable heat in the form of heated engine coolant and high temperature exhaust. The use of the recoverable thermal energy for space heating and cooling purposes is the driving factor behind the increased overall energy usage from conventional power generation systems. With this added benefit, approximately 80% of the energy put into a system can be used for either electrical power or heating and cooling purposes. A traditional power plant will generally only convert 30% of the system energy input to electrical energy. The other 70% may be released into the atmosphere as waste heat. In addition, CCHP systems have the advantage of increased energy reliability as compared to that of the traditional power plant.

This study presented an uncertainty analysis of a representative steady-state model of a CCHP system operating under FEL and FTL strategies. In particular the study presented the uncertainty in the model predictions of primary energy consumption, cost of operation, and carbon dioxide emissions. As an integral part of this uncertainty analysis this study presented practical approaches to obtain the uncertainty in input parameters such as the thermal load, natural gas and electricity prices, and engine performance