مدل چرخه عمر مهاجرت خارجی و جذب اقتصادی مهاجران در آلمان

This paper estimates a forward-looking life-cycle model of outmigration and labor force participation. The estimated model is used to evaluate the impact of enforcing a maximum stay duration for newly admitted immigrants on labor force participation and outmigration. Restricting the migration duration is found to have little effect on the labor force participation of skilled immigrants, and a negative effect on that of unskilled immigrants. Restricting the migration duration is also found to encourage the departure of unskilled and unsuccessful immigrants before the maximum duration is reached. These results are obtained by estimating the model with data that contain no information on outmigration decisions. It is shown that the assumption of a continuous state variable affecting attrition only through outmigration allows the probability of outmigration to be identified from the panel attrition. This probability can then be estimated using standard dynamic programming techniques. The migration durations so estimated are found to differ substantially from those estimated under the assumption that immigrants are myopic decision makers.