دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 1586
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

روش تجزیه و تحلیل چرخه عمر فناوری بر اساس اسناد ثبت اختراع

عنوان انگلیسی
Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
1586 2012 10 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Available online 28 November 2012

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
- چرخه عمر فن آوری - ثبت اختراع - شاخص - اشعه کاتدی - صفحه نمایش کریستال مایع ترانزیستور فیلم نازک - نانو بیوسنسور
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  روش تجزیه و تحلیل چرخه عمر فناوری بر اساس اسناد ثبت اختراع

چکیده انگلیسی

To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the current stage of its technology life cycle (TLC). The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators. The model includes the following steps: first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages, and finally compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology (test technology) using a nearest neighbour classifier, which is widely used in pattern recognition to measure the technology life cycle stage of the object technology. Such study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest and make their R&D strategy accordingly.