یک رویکرد فازی برای انتخاب پرتفوی پروژه "تحقیق و توسعه"

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development (R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows. In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.

Usually, new production technologies are developed infrequently, and they often evolve in uneven pace. Innovations are unpredictable, and thus involve large uncertainties with respect to both the development of opportunities in existing product markets and those in production processes. Corporate R&D management, supporting the maximal use of new innovations and technologies, always tries to keep the company up with the pace of technological development. R&D projects are tools for the company’s management to outpace competitors and obtain new information about promising technologies and methods. With such new information, companies aim to defend and build sustainable competitive advantages [25].