کاربرد تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی فازی در انتخاب پروژه های "تحقیق و توسعه" با حمابت مالی دولت

Due to the funding scale and complexity of technology, the selection of government sponsored technology development projects can be viewed as a multiple-attribute decision that is normally made by a review committee with experts from academia, industry, and the government. In this paper, we present a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method and utilize crisp judgment matrix to evaluate subjective expert judgments made by the technical committee of the Industrial Technology Development Program in Taiwan. Our results indicate that the scientific and technological merit is the most important evaluation criterion considered in overall technical committees. We demonstrate how the relative importance of the evaluation criteria changes under various risk environments via simulation.

Technology is viewed as one of the major factors determining the competitiveness of an industry. Private firms may not pursue technology research and development (R&D) projects because: (1) R&D scientific and technical frontiers are risky and the chances of failure are high. (2) An individual firm may not have the capabilities required to develop the technology. And (3) private incentives may not be sufficient to induce a firm to undertake the project in the face of difficulties in appropriating the resulting benefits [1]. In many countries, government-sponsored R&D programs prove to be a useful strategy to encourage private firms to undertake R&D projects [2]. For example, the American government initiated the Advanced Technology Program (ATP) in 1990 to encourage industry to develop technology projects. ATP has approved 134 R&D projects and totally funds committed US$331 million between 2002 and 2004 [3]. Korea, Japan, China, and many other organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) countries have all launched advanced technology programs to encourage private firms to develop core technologies and to secure cutting-edge technologies.

Many studies used the AHP to select R&D projects in the private sector; however, the selection process of government-sponsored R&D projects is discussed less. In this study we used a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (fuzzy AHP) in government-sponsored R&D projects. We employed a simulation to understand changes in the judgments of the technical advisory committee when they considered different decision risks. We also interviewed experts to understand ITDP policy implications and whether the fuzzy AHP approach is feasible for selecting government-sponsored R&D projects. Thus, the contribution of this study is to extend the fuzzy AHP application for R&D project selection in the public sector. Additionally, current fuzzy AHP studies in public R&D projects like Hsu et al. [6] and Wang et al. [13] do not consider decision risk. We integrated the degree of optimism to simulate expert judgments in different decision risks.