تجزیه و تحلیل ذخیره انرژی پتانسیل و کاهش انتشار گاز CO2 (دی اکسید کربن) در لوازم خانگی و تجهیزات تجاری در چین

China has implemented a series of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for over 30 appliances, voluntary energy efficiency label for 40 products, and a mandatory energy information label that covers 19 products to date. However, the impact of these programs and their savings potential has not been evaluated on a consistent basis. This paper uses modeling to estimate the energy saving and CO2 emission reduction potential of the appliances standard and labeling program for products for which standards are currently in place, under development or those proposed for development in 2010 under three scenarios that differ in the pace and stringency of MEPS development. In addition to a baseline “frozen efficiency” scenario at 2009 MEPS level, the “Continued Improvement Scenario” (CIS) reflects the likely pace of post-2009 MEPS revisions, and the likely improvement at each revision step. The “Best Practice Scenario” (BPS) examined the potential of an achievement of international best-practice efficiency in broad commercial use today in 2014. This paper concludes that under “CIS”, cumulative electricity consumption could be reduced by 9503 TWh, and annual CO2 emissions of energy used for all 37 products would be 16% lower than in the frozen efficiency scenario. Under a “BPS” scenario for a subset of products, cumulative electricity savings would be 5450 TWh and annual CO2 emissions reduction of energy used for 11 appliances would be 35% lower.

In recent years, China has become one of the world’s largest producers and consumers of household appliances as urban and rural ownership rates grew at an extraordinary pace. As China continues to develop its economy, urbanization and rising disposable incomes are expected to drive demand for appliances and related energy services. In fact, sustained rises in urban appliance ownership have already corresponded to growing urban residential electricity use at an annual average rate of 13.9% between 1980 and 2007 with similar paces in rural appliance ownership and electricity use (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) (NBS, various years).In light of the rapid rise in household appliance ownership, China’s first equipment energy efficiency standards program was established in 1989 to cover most common household appliances such as refrigerators, air conditioners, clothes washers, televisions, radios and electric fans.1 China’s minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) program was strengthened and expanded under the Energy Conservation Law of 1997 with greater regulatory attention and now covers over 30 different types of appliances and equipment including those common in the residential and commercial sector, and industrial equipment such as transformers and motors (National People's Congress, 1997; Zhou et al., 2010). At the same time, it has expanded the coverage of its voluntary energy efficiency label to over 40 products (Table 1). Typically, MEPS are developed through a process involving government, industry and research experts and can take 18 to 24 months depending on the product. The China National Institute of Standardization (CNIS) is responsible for drafting new and updated standards and in some cases, MEPS test procedures are based on internationally accepted test standards (CNIS, 2002). The MEPS mandate the maximum allowable energy consumption for a given appliance product and are generally updated every 4–5 years, with each update typically increasing stringency by about 10% over the previous level (Fridley et al., 2001). In order to provide manufacturers with longer lead times for design and production of new products, new and revised standards since 2003 have included a second period “reach standard” of even greater stringency with a typical 3-year lead time to implementation.China has had a voluntary energy label endorsing products that meet a certain efficiency threshold since 1998, and adopted a mandatory information label that ranks product models of the same type by efficiency category to inform consumer purchase decisions in 2005. This mandatory categorical energy information label is known as the China Energy Label and was established following legal provisions in the Energy Conservation Law with supporting regulation and support for implementation in the Product Quality Law and Legislation on Certification & Accreditation (Jin and Li, 2006). The China Energy Label includes five categories of efficiency, ranked from 1 (highest) to 5 (MEPS), and a given product’s rating is based on self-reported energy consumption data from manufacturers. At its launch in March 2005, the label was implemented for use only on refrigerators and air conditioners, and now further expanded to cover 15 products by the end of 2009. Complementary to appliance standards, the Energy Label is intended to promote consumer awareness and market transformation. Besides quantifying energy and economic impacts of standards and labeling (S&L) programs, consistent impact evaluations also help justify program funding, assess program effectiveness and identify potential weaknesses in program design or implementation and are thus a crucial factor for S&L program success (Vine et al., 2001 and Wiel and McMahon, 2005; Levine et al., 2010). To date, however, the impact of China’s S&L programs and their saving potential has not been evaluated on a consistent basis. This research involves modeling to estimate energy saving2 and emission reduction potential of the appliances standard and labeling program for products for which standards are already in effect, currently under development and those proposed for development in 2010. The baseline or “Frozen” scenario for evaluating the impact of S&L programs is based on the absence of any appliance efficiency policy and assumes that an appliance’s energy intensity as measured by unit energy consumption is frozen at the average level of when the first standard was implemented. Two additional scenarios that have been developed differ primarily in the pace and stringency of MEPS development. The Continued Improvement Scenario (CIS) reflects the likely pace of post-2009 MEPS revisions, and the likely improvement at each revision step considering the technical limitation of the technology. The Best Practice Scenario (BPS) examined the potential of an achievement of best-practice efficiency in broad global commercial use today in 2014 for a subset of products evaluated in the CIS scenario. This paper presents the modeling methodology of three scenarios of possible efficiency improvements in residential, commercial and industrial equipment and compares the savings potential of both BPS and CIS scenarios against a frozen efficiency scenario. Conclusions are drawn to provide policymakers and other energy analysts with details of the success and shortcomings of the program as well as a guide to targets for further strengthening of the program.

In a rapidly growing economy like China, energy efficiency is more likely to slow the rate of demand growth than to reduce consumption below current levels. Nevertheless, the efficiency programs modeled in this paper will likely result in significantly lower CO2 emissions than would have occurred if the programs had not been developed. This analysis is particularly important in highlighting the value of China’s standards and labeling programs in the absence of consistent impact evaluations and underscores the program’s future energy savings and emission reduction potential. This paper concludes that under the CIS scenario of regularly scheduled MEPS revisions to 2030, cumulative electricity consumption for all products could be reduced by 9503 TWh, and CO2 emissions in 2030 would be 16% lower than in the frozen scenario. Under a BPS scenario for a subset of 11 products that account for 22% of the electricity consumption of the larger total set of 37 products, cumulative electricity savings would be 5450 TWh and CO2 emissions in 2030 would be 35% lower than in the frozen scenario. Standards in place in China for residential and commercial appliances (excluding motors, transformers, and air compressors) are expected to save a cumulative 6947 TWh by 2030, or 14% of the cumulative consumption of building electricity to that year. Scenario analysis in this study have shown that significant amount of energy savings and emission reduction of similar magnitudes can be achieved either through a large one-time improvement to current international best-practice efficiency levels (BPS scenario) or through more frequent and incremental efficiency improvements (CIS scenario) as is the current process for China. Unlike the U.S., which emphasizes consensus-building amongst multiplicity of stakeholders including government, industry, environmental non-government organizations and consumer groups in the standards development process, China’s MEPS are typically updated more frequently but at smaller increments because its process focuses on reaching compromises between government and industry. China’s current standards development framework suggests that a CIS path of efficiency improvements is more realistic in the future. Although the scenario analysis shows that a process of continued improvement alone can deliver large energy and CO2 emission reduction, realization of these savings will require continuous strengthening of the standards program.