روند مصرف انرژی صنعتی در چین و تاثیر برنامه صرفه جویی در انرژی 1000 شرکت برتر و ده کلید پروژه های صرفه جویی در انرژی

This study analyzes China's industrial energy consumption trends from 1996 to 2010 with a focus on the impact of the Top-1000 Enterprises Energy-Saving Program and the Ten Key Energy-Saving Projects. From 1996 to 2010, China's industrial energy consumption increased by 134%, even as the industrial economic energy intensity decreased by 46%. Decomposition analysis shows that the production effect was the dominant cause of the rapid growth in industrial energy consumption, while the efficiency effect was the major factor slowing the growth of industrial energy consumption. The structural effect had a relatively small and fluctuating influence. Analysis shows the strong association of industrial energy consumption with the growth of China's economy and changing energy policies. An assessment of the Top-1000 Enterprises Energy-Saving Program and the Ten Key Energy-Saving Projects indicates that the economic energy intensity of major energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors, as well as the physical energy intensity of major energy-intensive industrial products, decreased significantly during China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) period (2006–2010). This study also shows the importance and challenge of realizing structural change toward less energy-intensive activities in China during the 12th FYP period (2011–2015).

With rapid economic growth, China's energy consumption increased significantly since the 1980s. By 2010, China's annual industrial energy consumption increased by 134% over the 1996 level. From 1996 to 2010, China's industrial energy intensity generally decreased, but experienced large fluctuations during the period of 2003–2005. Decomposition analysis shows that the production effect (activity effect) was the dominant factor for the rapid growth of China's industrial energy consumption. The efficiency effect (real energy intensity change) was the major factor that slowed the growth of industrial energy consumption. The efficiency effect slowed the growth of industrial energy consumption in most years during the period of 1996–2010, except in 2004. The structural effect had a relatively small and fluctuating effect on industrial energy consumption over the period of 1996–2010. The cumulative structural effect from 1996 to 2010 was negligible, indicating the challenge of the Chinese government's goal to achieve more structural change. In 2005, the Chinese government set a mandatory target for energy intensity reduction for the 11th FYP period. This target effectively slowed the growth of industrial energy consumption, although it could not deter the overall increase in industrial energy consumption. Since 2005, China's industrial energy intensity has continued to decline significantly. An assessment of the two major industry-related energy-saving programs and initiatives during China's 11th FYP period, specifically the Top-1000 Program and the Ten Key Projects, indicates that both economic energy intensity of major energy-intensive sub-sectors and physical energy intensity of major energy-intensive products decreased significantly. The contribution of the Top-1000 Program and the Ten Key Projects is large in terms of energy savings, although it is difficult to disentangle the impact of the Ten Key Projects from the Top-1000 Program because of the overlaps that occurred in these two programs. China has made significant progress in industrial efficiency improvement. Energy efficiency improvement will still be a key policy strategy for the Chinese government to achieve its industrial energy intensity reduction target during China's 12th FYP period (2011–2015).14 The central government recognizes that structural change must also be addressed. As the physical energy intensities of energy-intensive products approach international advanced levels, structural energy savings will show more and more potential in energy intensity reduction. However, this analysis shows that structural effects have had a relatively small influence on energy consumption to date while the production effect has been the dominant influence. Thus, new policy strategies are needed to promote energy-saving structural change, as well to calm energy-intensive production.