کنترل دولت و یا شیوه زندگی کم کربن؟ - تجزیه و تحلیل و کاربرد سیستم نوین در صرفه جویی انرژی و کاهش آلاینده ها

This paper explores a novel selective-constrained energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) dynamic evolution system, analyzing the impact of cost of conserved energy (CCE), government control, low carbon lifestyle and investment in new technology of ESER on energy intensity and economic growth. Based on artificial neural network, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified. Taking the real situation in China for instance, an empirical study is undertaken by adjusting the parameters of the actual system. The dynamic evolution behavior of energy intensity and economic growth in reality are observed, with the results in perfect agreement with actual situation. The research shows that the introduction of CCE into ESER system will have certain restrictive effect on energy intensity in the earlier period. However, with the further development of the actual system, carbon emissions could be better controlled and energy intensity would decline. In the long run, the impacts of CCE on economic growth are positive. Government control and low carbon lifestyle play a decisive role in controlling ESER system and declining energy intensity. But the influence of government control on economic growth should be considered at the same time and the controlling effect of low carbon lifestyle on energy intensity should be strengthened gradually, while the investment in new technology of ESER can be neglected. Two different cases of ESER are proposed after a comprehensive analysis. The relations between variables and constraint conditions in the ESER system are harmonized remarkably. A better solution to carry out ESER is put forward at last, with numerical simulations being carried out to demonstrate the results.

Global warming has gained the whole world's close attention. “Global action” is of great necessity in controlling the pace of global warming. Since the approval of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNECCC), the wrangle between nations about the goal and task of carbon emission reduction has never stopped. Despite all the controversy, people have consonant opinions on the big challenge: energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) is the key to control carbon emissions and tackle global warming issues. Each country can establish an ESER system in agreement with their actual situation by coordinating variables in ESER system efficiently, according to the country's ESER plan. (Hamit-Haggar, 2012, Bloch et al., 2012, Su and Ang, 2011 and Fourcroy et al., 2012). Then carbon emissions could be better controlled and energy intensity would decline to a great extent. In the process of probing ESER system (Wang and Chen, 2010, Zhang et al., 2011, Rezessy and Bertoldi, 2011 and González-Eguino, 2011), the actual ESER system is restrained by many constraint conditions. By reasonably adjusting these constraint conditions and refining ESER system, carbon emissions could be controlled more effectively and energy intensity would decline while the economic growth could be guaranteed. Among the constraint conditions in ESER system, cost of conserved energy (CCE) is the restrictive factor of ESER, and the decision-making basis of energy saving measures (Garg et al., 2011 and McNeil and Bojda, 2012). Investment in new technology of ESER will have certain effects on economic growth (Aghion et al., 2009). Government control and low carbon lifestyle could decrease carbon emissions directly (Abdelaziz et al., 2011 and Zhang, 2011). Government control and low carbon lifestyle is the key to control carbon emissions and decrease energy intensity, which have naturally enjoyed widespread popularity. Fulfilling the function of government control could control carbon emissions immediately (Mu and Niu, 2011), while these controls have inhibition effects on economic growth most of the time. Low carbon lifestyle has little inhibition effects on economic growth with decreasing carbon emissions; therefore building low carbon economy and advocating low carbon lifestyle (Streimikiene and Volochovic, 2011, Rosas-Flores et al., 2011, Marcos et al., 2011 and Foxon, 2011) have attracted many scholars' attention. Heiskanen et al. (2010) analyzed the actions of different types of low carbon communities in changing individual's behavior, and investigated how these communities offer solutions to reduce carbon emissions by changing individual's behavior. Feliciano and Prosperi (2011) analyzed the central questions of planning low carbon cities using Broward County, Florida, USA as an example. Howell (2013) carried out a deep investigation of UK citizens who have adopted lower carbon lifestyles. The investigation mainly includes social justice, community, frugality and personal integrity. The effects of lower carbon lifestyle on inhabitants were explored. The authors pointed out that the overall planning of the layout of low carbon future should be portrayed, rather than simply providing a ‘to do’ list to tackle climate change. Liu et al. (2011) investigated Chinese current situation of energy supply, energy structure and units' energy consumption, described some application practices of low carbon, for instance, low carbon traffic, low carbon city and low carbon village. Shen and Zhang (2011) explored the problem of energy, economy and society in the West District of Panzhihua City in China, and pointed out that low carbon economy is the key to sustained development in the West District, actively advocating that low carbon lifestyle could promote the coordinated development of economy and society in the West District. Furthermore, there are some specific low carbon actions, such as low carbon transport (Hickman et al., 2011 and Brand et al., 2012) and low carbon tourism (Huang and Deng, 2011). In addition, chaos analyses have been conducted for the extensive applications in dynamical systems. (Sun et al., 2011 and Gilli et al., 2012). Fang et al. (2012) proposed a novel three dimensional ESER chaotic system, deducing the time-varying energy intensity calculation formula from the ESER system. An empirical study is undertaken with the real situation in China as an instance. The variables which have significant impact on ESER and energy intensity were figured out. A series of results in perfect agreement with the actual situation of China were presented. The previous research findings about ESER and corresponding constraint conditions are fruitful, while the constraint conditions were not incorporated into a monolithic system to carry integrated dissections. The actual ESER system should be a complex system, which includes many variables and corresponding constraint conditions. This paper develops a selective-constrained ESER dynamic evolution system further, introducing cost of conserved energy, government control, low carbon lifestyle and investment in new technology of ESER into ESER system (Fang et al., 2012), which act as restriction conditions. By analyzing the effects of these restriction conditions on energy intensity and economic growth, a better restriction condition is put forward. It is confirmed that the selective-constrained ESER dynamic evolution system is more similar to the reality and easier to control, with the final stable value of energy intensity being far smaller than the former one. The outline of this paper is organized as follows. The model is set up and analyzed in Section 2. Section 3 is the empirical study of the actual system based on China's statistics data. Implications of the research for government policy are analyzed in Section 4. Conclusions and outlook are finally presented in Section 5.

This paper further investigates a novel selective-constrained ESER dynamic evolution system with the analysis of the impacts of CCE, government control and low carbon lifestyle, investment in new technology of ESER on energy intensity and economic growth. The impact of government control and low carbon lifestyle in ESER system is focused on followed by the discussion of the key influential factors which affect energy intensity and economic growth. The selective-constrained ESER dynamic evolution system is evolved, and the better solution to carry ESER is put forward. In the selective- constrained ESER system, when the CCE gradually increases and comes to play the role in the system, energy intensity could be controlled and economic growth could be promoted. Nevertheless, this process is long, and the amount of CCE is difficult to decide (the ESER system will collapse with inappropriate investment). The investment in new technology of ESER does no better job on controlling energy intensity, which has little effect on the ESER system. Government control and low carbon lifestyle play a key role in controlling the ESER system and reducing energy intensity. As for the situation in China, government control could reduce carbon emissions rapidly, and energy intensity could be controlled; however, these control measures will have some inhibition effect on economic growth. Low carbon lifestyle has the same effect on reducing energy intensity without affecting economic growth. The proper constrained control plan can be drawn up according to the actual ESER conditions and present economic situation. Low carbon lifestyle should be advocated all the time. There exist a number of studies about this issue in previous researches. The variables relating to ESER are discussed from the perspectives of technology, management and policy (Abdelaziz et al., 2011). The game between enterprises and government (Mu and Niu, 2011) and the effects of lower carbon life on inhabitants (Howell, 2013) are analyzed. Some application practices of low carbon city (Liu et al., 2011 and Feliciano and Prosperi, 2011), low carbon communities (Heiskanen et al., 2010) and some specific low carbon actions (Hickman et al., 2011, Brand et al., 2012 and Huang and Deng, 2011) are investigated. Low carbon economy is a key to promoting sustainable development of society (Shen and Zhang, 2011), and low carbon lifestyle is an important guarantee for the development of low carbon economy. This paper starts with dynamics inventively, setting up selective-constrained ESER system by incorporating CCE, government control and low carbon lifestyle, investment in new technology of ESER into a consecutive dynamic evolution system, which acts as selective-constrained conditions. The time-varying energy intensity calculation formula is derived from the novel selective-constrained ESER system. The ideal plan to reduce energy intensity and take economic growth into account is obtained by observing the evolution tendency of evolution curves and numerical simulation analysis. All of these are reformation and innovation of research methods. Compared with previous researches, this paper uses the method of model and scenario analysis, with the more reasonable theoretical base. The findings of the study are more consistent with the actual ESER system and China's reality. This research mainly focused on the evolution behavior of ESER, carbon emissions, economic growth and their corresponding constraint conditions. Of course, the actual ESER system is related to carbon tax, existing social, economic and political systems and the extent of public acceptance. Selective-constrained ESER system contains lots more variables necessary to add and improve. For the lack of statistical data, there might be some influence on the output parameters during the process of parameter identification. According to this model, the conditions of other similar countries could also be discussed on the basis of statistical data (the accurate data of, i.e. the data of ESER could not be obtained at the present time). The evolution behavior of ESER of other similar countries could be analyzed. Some comparisons between China and the other similar countries could be carried out too. In this paper, the impact on energy intensity and economic growth is studied systematically, while the impact on other variables will be explored in the future.