FUGI سیستم مدل سازی جهانی(FGMS200): مدل جهانی یکپارچه برای توسعه پایدار

The FUGI global model has been developed as a media of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy coordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the world economy under the constraints of changing global environment. The FUGI global model 9.0 M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent through international trade, export/import prices, financial flows, ODA, private foreign direct investment, exchange rates, stock market prices, and policy information, etc. The purpose of this article is twofold; the one is to introduce the outline of the FUGI global model 9.0 M200PC which might be expected to open a new frontier of economic science in the 21st century and the other is to make the baseline projections of the world economy during the period 2001–2010 as well as some policy scenario simulations using the FUGI global modeling system (FGMS). This modeling system is officially used by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) for the projections of the world economy and policy scenario simulations since 2000. The latest software of FGMS (FGMS200) for the Windows 98/2000/xp is also available.

In the 21st century it is expected that integrated progress of science, technology, and new economic development will be seen in the human society where a globally interdependent complex system is. The information technology innovation will give tremendous impacts on human life, culture, and economic development. Historically speaking, human behaviors under the global cultural changes imposed by the increasingly interdependent global human society are a rather new experience and challenge for the human society. Under these circumstances, the Futures of Global Interdependence (FUGI) global model seems likely to play a significant role in efforts to envisage the future of global interdependence and to provide global information on the economic development and environmental changes under alternative policy scenarios for the sustainable development. Project FUGI was started in 1976 with the cooperation of three Japanese institutions, namely, the University of Tokyo, Osaka University, and Soka University, under the sponsorship of the National Institute for Research Advancement in Tokyo. The original FUGI model consisted of three parts: a Global Input–Output Model (GIOM), a Global Resources Model (GRM), and a Global Economic Model (GEM), Types I, M15. Yoichi Kaya (Faculty of Engineering, University of Tokyo, Yutaka Suzuki, Faculty of Engineering, Osaka University) and the author coordinated the designing of these models, respectively (Onishi, 1977). Work in progress was reported at the IIASA global modeling symposium in 1977 and the years following (Onishi, 1980). The first generation FUGI global economic model (Type I, M15) designed by the author was the development of the Multi-Nation Economic Model which was originally designed by the author in 1965 and applied the 15 countries in Asia for the purpose of projections of the Asian economy (Onishi, 1965). Drawing on experiences with global modeling in the 1970s, the author developed a fourth-generation FUGI global economic model (Type IV, M62) that divided the world into 62 countries/regions and consisted of approximately 30,000 equations. It was first made public at a seminar on comparative simulations of global economic models held at Stanford University, June 25–26, 1981 (Onishi, 1981). The United Nations Secretariat, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Projections and Perspective Studies Branch for the purpose of long-term projections and policy simulations of the world economy soon afterward adopted this model for use. It was used from 1981 to 1991, when it was replaced by the new generation FUGI global model, Type VII, M80. For the period 1985–1986, a new generation of the FUGI global model was designed as a global early warning system for displaced persons ( Onishi, 1986a, Onishi, 1986b, Onishi, 1986c, Onishi, 1986d, Onishi, 1987 and Onishi, 1990). During the period 1990–1995, the FUGI model 7.0 M80 was designed as an integrated global model for sustainable development ( Onishi, 1993, Onishi, 1994a, Onishi, 1994b, Onishi, 1995a and Onishi, 1995b). During the period 1991–1999, the author designed a significant new software system for global modeling. This expert software system, named as FUGI Global Modeling System (FGMS) using an IBM R/S 6000 workstation was researched and developed as a package for specific use in making computations for the FUGI global model 9.0 (Type IX) M200/80 (Onishi, 1991, Onishi, 1993, Onishi, 1994a, Onishi, 1994b, Onishi, 1995a, Onishi, 1995b, Onishi, 1996a, Onishi, 1997a, Onishi, 1997b, Onishi, 1998, Onishi, 1999 and Onishi, 2001a) and M200 (Onishi, 2000). The FGMS software system consists of (1) database including ORG, CNT, and RGN; (2) EST, estimating parameters of the model; and (3) SIM, simulations using the model. It can carry out automatic estimation of a given set of structural parameters of the FUGI model, using OLS as well as MLBM and forecast simulations efficiently, using Automatic Error Correction System (AECS). In 2000, this expert system has entered the new stage of FGMS200 using a personal computer (Windows 2000) for running the FUGI global model 9.0, M200PC. This latest M200 model, consisting of more than 150,000 equations, classifies the world into 200 countries/regions so that the model can produce the forecast simulations of the sustainable global development with interdependent 200-national/regional developments ( Onishi, 2001b and Onishi, 2001c). The global model simulation exercises using M200PC cover the baseline projection of the global economy, 2001–2030. The model can provide information not only on the baseline projections but also alternative policy scenario simulations.

The FGMS200 has been developed as a media of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy coordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the world economy. It is worth noting that FGMS200 can operate the FUGI global model 9.0 M200PC using a personal computer (Windows 98/2000/xp). The development of both the hardware and the software of high-technology computer systems have supported FUGI global modeling. The FGMS represents a new frontier in economic science stimulated by information technology and life science. Metaphorically speaking, the world’s around 200 countries including the UN and non-UN members can be thought of as “cells” which, when separate and isolated should only act in a disconnected way, each in its own fashion. But when given information concerning the global human society, the possibility arises that each country can take in information on what it ought to best to do, with the result that through a sort of feedback system the global economy will operate more smoothly. This is one of the hints given by the recent development of life science. The transmission of information is an important aspect of life functions, absolutely essential for the existence and continuation of life. Humans furthermore have a capacity by which some information is consciously perceived as signals from outside as a result of which new and useful information can then be generated from inside “human genome” information, taking on, in other words, takes on a self-organizing capacity. There are vital characteristics of the life phenomenon. The FUGI global modeling methodology has also received a large impact from of brain physiology. The human brain is made up of around 6 billion neurons, or nerve cells. The “right brain” has to do with what we call “pattern recognition,” and specializes in the ability to grasp “images” and perceive things as a totality. The “left brain” displays an outstanding capacity to think logically in terms of symbols and words. A thick belt of the inter-brain ridge links the information inputs handled by the left and right brains. Images taken in by the right brain are sent to the left brain, where they are logically analyzed and checked out to see if they correspond with reality, and are then fed back again into the right brain. In this way, the brain can make judgments and produce new information. The working of the human brain, in which the neurons not only form a network through synapse but recognize each other, has provided some very useful hints for the construction of global models. This is because global models have the role of offering global information. If this information undergoes a feedback process reflecting itself in each country’s actual policies, the future image of the world economy will change with the emergence of global information. In the future, mutual understanding can be expected to increase through global information exchanges, and it is only with this base that we can begin to talk about possibilities for international cooperation and policy coordination. The functioning of the individual cells that support human life depends on both genetic information and non-genetic information generated through “creative” endeavors such as learning. It is still in the future for a global model to be developed that will in fact have a similar capacity for “self-organization.” Perhaps we will first have to develop a global system that will be conducive to the employment of such an avant-garde model. But in this process, it may nevertheless be expected that current global models can give useful policy suggestions. An important phenomenon discovered through research in biotechnology is the so-called “fluctuation phenomenon.” It may be appropriately said that the presence of fluctuations seems to be a basic and necessary element for the evolution of life. And again, this is a very important element in thinking about the global economy. Forecast simulations based on present baseline scenarios accommodate a large degree of “fluctuation” in light of the current unstable situation. At the same time, there is of course the possibility of controlling this situation and changing its course through more energetic international policy coordination, or, in the terminology of biotechnology, “dynamic cooperation” among countries. There are indeed many kinds of possibilities for invigorating the global economy, raising its growth rate, greatly reducing world unemployment, and promoting innovations opening up new 21st century frontiers. By demonstrating these possibilities through future simulations using the latest FUGI global model, we can exercise alternative policy scenarios for the global economy and can offer suggestions to those responsible for policy-making in the world’s various countries. In keeping with these new concepts, it will no doubt advance to new frontiers in economic science, while keeping much of its heritage of traditional economics. We ought to actively pursue this vision in new frontier of economic science, and in this regard we see FGMS as one of the important intellectual challenges in the 21st century.