سیاست های موثر در حال توسعه برای توسعه پایدار کشاورزی بوم شناختی در چین: مطالعه موردی از شهرستان جینشان با یک مدل سیستم دینامیکی

This paper focuses on a search for concrete policy measures to facilitate the overall sustainability of ecological agricultural development at a county level. For this purpose, a system dynamics model (AISEEM) has been developed to explore the potential long-term ecological, economic, institutional and social interactions of ecological agricultural development through a case study of Jinshan County in China. The model provides an experimental platform for the simulation and analysis of alternative policy scenarios. The results indicate that the diversification of land-use patterns, government low interest loans and government support for training are important policy measures for promoting the sustainable development of ecological agriculture, at least in the case study context. In addition, the study reveals that environmentally sound technology (e.g., biogas project) alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt ecological agricultural practices. Limited availability of information, risk aversion and high transaction costs are major barriers to the adoption of alternative agricultural practices. In this regard, the importance of capacity building and institutional arrangements are emphasised through the development of an improved policy-making process on agricultural sustainability. This case study highlights the importance of combining the ecological economics analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach as a feasible integrated tool to provide insight into the policy analysis of ecological agriculture, and thus set a solid basis for effective policy making to facilitate its sustainable development on a regional scale.

Philosophical definitions of agricultural sustainability are relatively easy to state, but operational definitions and methodologies to allow them to be applied in agricultural policy making and planning are much more difficult to determine (Smith and McDonald, 1998). This is particularly the case in Chinese ecological agriculture (see Shi, 2002a, Shi, 2002b, Shi, 2003a, Shi, 2003b and Shi, 2004d). Therefore, it is urgent to adopt a comprehensive analytical framework and a holistic approach in ecological agricultural research and practice, and to develop effective bottom-up policy initiatives for facilitating its sustainable development. Although ecological agricultural development has many potential ecological, economic and social problems with complex long-term impacts, it is important to recognize that these dynamic human-natural interactions can be understood and, thus, managed to minimize unintended adverse consequences (Saysel et al., 2002). In the past, the evaluation of sustainable agricultural practices was confined to individual farms and villages (e.g., Ma, 1988, Qu et al., 1997 and Gliessman, 1998), but it is currently imperative to effect a comprehensive assessment that integrates broader ecological, economic and social dimensions going beyond the local level. A methodological synthesis of ecological economics and system dynamics modeling may provide an appropriate analytical framework and tool for this purpose (see Shi, 2004b). In this paper, a case study of the ecological agricultural development in Jinshan County is elaborated to illustrate how an ecological economics framework and a system dynamics model are woven together to address agricultural sustainability through effective policy making at the county level. In the following sections of this paper, a short background to the case study area is provided, including a description of its historical development and present situation, current problems and prevailing policy and management practice. Next, the methodological framework for this case study is outlined. Then, a high level aggregated system dynamics model is developed as a policy-learning laboratory through which to support the analysis of ecological agricultural development in the case study area. Finally, the major findings from model simulations under different scenarios are analysed and corresponding policy recommendations are offered. Although the system dynamics model in this case study is applied to site-specific problems, the implications of its general application to other similar regions and situations are briefly discussed. Conclusions then follow.

In this paper, a system dynamics model (AISEEM) was developed to simulate the long-term perspective of ecological agricultural development in Jinshan County. The results of model simulations indicate that the diversification of land-use patterns, government low interest loans, and government support for training are important policy measures in promoting the sustainable development of ecological agriculture. In addition, the study stresses that environmentally sound technology (e.g., biogas project) alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt ecological agricultural practices. Limited availability of information, risk aversion, and high transaction cost are among the major barriers to the adoption of alternative agricultural practices. In this regard, the importance of capacity building and institutional arrangements is emphasized through the development of an improved policy-making process on agricultural sustainability. This case study highlights the relevance of combining an ecological economics framework with a system dynamics modeling approach as a feasible tool to provide insight into the policy analysis of ecological agriculture, and thus set a solid basis for effective policy making to facilitate its sustainable development on a regional scale. AISEEM is an important aid in sustainable agricultural development decisions. It enables policy-makers to make informed decisions about managing agriculture to maximize ecological, economic and social outcomes. System dynamics modeling considers a range of options for agricultural practices, and their associated social and economic risks and environmental benefits. It helps policy-makers to make an objective assessment of ecological responses and expected impacts for social and economic development. It will allow policy-makers to focus on the particular characteristics of each region, identify what its needs are, nominate opportunities for future development and tailor a detailed program of means necessary to achieve the objectives of sustainable agricultural development. This model is an initial attempt to dynamically describe and display the processes of ecological agricultural development over time. It can serve as a policy analysis tool for researchers, practitioners and decision-makers to obtain important insights into the relationships between different factors contributing to the changes in agricultural processes. More importantly, it is presented here as a viable learning framework through which to integrate and evolve the insights of diverse stakeholders who are involved in a comprehensive policy analysis and effective policy making towards the realization of sustainable ecological agricultural development at the county level. Moreover, this model-based case study has demonstrated that the combination of system dynamics modelling and ecological economic analysis can provide greater understanding of, and important insights into, the long-term processes of agricultural and social development and of economic-environmental interactions at a regional scale. Factors such as inadequate technology, low finance, limited human resources and poor public environmental awareness, limit the further implementation of ecological agriculture. The results of model simulation indicate that diversifying agricultural production activities, increasing belief in ecological agricultural practices, and expanding biogas project development are important policy options for the county's long-term ecological, economic and social sustainability. The further development of ecological agriculture is closely related to the promotion of grass-roots policy initiatives through public participation in policy making at the local level.