دیدگاه ها و سیاست های انرژی کانادا برای توسعه پایدار

A regression analysis is performed to make projections for the Canadian energy production and consumption. These have been increasing and are projected to increase even further in the near future. The primary energy production and consumption are projected to increase by 52% and 34%, respectively, by 2025 over 2004 if business as usual. The amount of fossil energy resources is finite and the extraction, transportation and combustion of fossil fuels cause environmental pollution and climate change. On the other hand, energy plays an important role in the economic and social development of Canada. Canada can develop further from an energy balance point of view, but this alone cannot be sustainable, because of the negative consequences of the major energy use on the environment. Application of energy localization and diversification is a promising solution, but in order to reach that, better energy efficiency and more use of renewable energy are necessary. Instead of non-compulsory policies Canada’s policy approach should have more compulsory policies. Only then Canada can be made to develop further in a sustainable manner.

Canada is an energy-intensive country: the energy sector is an important part of Canada’s economy in terms of investment, trade, income generation and employment [1]. The Canadian energy demand and production is increasing further every year. Canadian primary energy production increased from 11,495 PJ to 16,594 PJ between 1990 and 2004, an increase of 44%. In the same period the Canadian primary energy consumption increased from 9229 PJ to 11,617 PJ, which is an increase of almost 26% [2]. Not only the Canadian energy consumption has been increasing every year, but also the worldwide energy consumption has been increasing rapidly, because energy is an essential input to all forms of economic and social activities and plays an important role in the economic and social development of a country. The major energy demand of fossil fuels has major consequences. One of the main issues is that the amount of fossil resources is finite and that it is not sure how long these fossil fuels are available for future generations. Another main environmental problem caused by the major energy consumption is the emission of toxic chemical pollutants, greenhouse gases like CO2 and other air pollutants. These cause climate change and environmental pollution of air, land and water, which has a negative impact on the health of humans and all other life forms on earth. Sustainable development (developing sustainable or achieving sustainability) means the satisfaction of present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs [3] and [4]. Sustainability can be seen as the final goal: a balance of social and economic activities and the environment. Sustainable development is a mean of reaching total sustainability. A sustainable energy sector has a balance of energy production and consumption and has no, or minimal, negative impact on the environment (within the environmental tolerance limits), but also gives the opportunity for a country to employ its social–economic activities. Given this definition and the current trends in the energy sector as described above, it can be concluded that the manner Canada is developing at the moment is definitely not sustainable. Essential steps towards a sustainable energy future must be made in order to make Canada develop in a sustainable manner, because little has changed so far in the Canadian energy behaviour and technology. In order to really break the current trends radical changes are needed, small steps are not sufficient to reach the goal. To make these changes, with improvement in the quality of life and with having room for further development and further population and economical growth, the Canadian Government has to step forward and take the lead. According to Dincer and Dost [5] developing a good energy policy is not possible without enough knowledge of past and present energy consumption and likely future demands. In 1997 Dincer et al. [6] analyzed the current situation of Canada’s energy resources and provided future projections, but a decade after their projections it can be concluded that the total Canadian energy production and energy demand has grown even further as they predicted. Other trend analyses are performed by Tutmez [7] and Dincer and Dost [5]. Tutmez performed a trend analysis for the projection of energy related carbon dioxide emissions and forecasted the 2025 world’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels between 30,000 and 32,000 million metric ton. Dincer and Dost [5] analysed the close relationship between the GDP, the population of Canada and Canada’s energy supply and consumption over the years. Li [8] concludes that the best approach to the issue of energy, environment and sustainable development is the diversification and localization of energy systems, which is also the best approach to the security of energy. The dominance of a single energy source and system, no matter how “perfect” it might be at a time, would be unsustainable in the long run. Canada has good possibilities to apply energy diversification and localization, but currently Canada is still exporting and importing major amounts of energy and is still very dependent on fossil fuels. An effective energy policy is necessary in order to successfully apply the diversification and localization of energy systems. According to Tampier [9] green power marketing is not an effective green power policy, because the impact of voluntary green power programs is very limited. Rivers and Jaccard [10] have the same opinion about the low effectiveness of marketing, but according to them even subsidies are not effective policies. Without a major change towards more compulsory policies, it will be unlikely that Canada will shift towards more usage of renewable energy and better energy efficiency. Karimi [11] agrees: “As long as the current energy source is doing the job (at a very low price), there will be a resistance to change by Canadian inhabitants and companies, especially when it takes time, money and effort”. He also states that complete reliance on voluntary programs will not be effective and that voluntary programs must be complemented by regulations. There are many studies about energy statistics and the effectiveness of energy policy, as indicated early. However, not much is directed towards how Canada is able to develop further in a sustainable manner from an energy point of view. The policy of the Canadian Government is of major importance for a sustainable development of Canada. Therefore the goal of this study is to find out how Canada can develop further in a sustainable manner from an energy point of view and what the role of the Canadian Government must be to reach these goals. As stated by Dincer and Dost [5] developing a good energy policy is not possible without enough knowledge of past and present energy consumption and likely future demands. Therefore some statistics about the current situation will be analysed. Historic data will be used to perform a regression analysis. The outcome of that analysis is an equation, which will be used to make predictions of the future developments in the energy sector. Using this prediction the room for further development will be analysed. This will be done from two points of view: from an energy balance point of view (balance between energy production and consumption) and from an environmental impact point of view. This knowledge about the future situation provides more knowledge about what the government will have to do, in order to take care of further sustainable growth. Although energy policy must be considered as a global issue, because the result of energy policy is dependant on global effort, this paper will focus on Canadian energy policy only and analyses only Canadian historic data. Linear regression analysis is used as the method for performing a trend analysis, because this method is suitable to predict the mean future data.

Canada’s primary energy production and consumption have been growing much faster than past predictions, and are projected to increase by 52% and 34%, respectively, by 2025 over 2004 if business as usual, based on the statistical data analysis. Therefore, without additional policy measures Canada is very unlikely to achieve the set goals for Kyoto, nor to have a sustainable development. The present study aims to find out how Canada can develop further in a sustainable manner from an energy point of view and what the role of the Canadian Government in this is. From an energy balance point of view there is still room for further growth, but this will have a major negative impact on the environment if business as usual. Important in this is the role of the Canadian Government. They have to take care of providing incentives for more renewable energy and a higher efficiency, which is necessary to have a diverse and localised energy market. Instead of non-compulsory policies like subsidies and voluntarism in order to meet its Kyoto targets, Canada’s policy approach should have more compulsory policies. More renewable sources and less energy demand will be the necessary steps towards a more localised and more diverse energy system, which will be the basis for further sustainable development of Canada.