ارزش اقتصادی خدمات اکوسیستم دریایی در زانزیبار: مفاهیم برای حفاظت از محیط زیست دریایی و توسعه پایدار

Marine ecosystem services are seriously undervalued, resulting in under-investment in conservation and lost opportunities for economic growth and poverty reduction. Economic valuation provides a powerful tool for sustainable development by showing how dependent the economy is on an ecosystem and what would be lost if the ecosystem is not protected. This paper estimates the value of marine ecosystem services in Zanzibar, links the values to the national income accounts, and quantifies how the benefits from each ecosystem service are distributed among five different stakeholder groups. Marine ecosystem services contribute 30% of GDP, yet the ecosystem is seriously degraded due to both human and natural causes. The paper explores the reasons for this, focusing on the distribution of benefits and the (dis)incentives this creates for conservation, especially among local communities that steward the marine ecosystem.

The critical role played by coastal and marine ecosystem services, especially in poor communities in developing countries, is now widely recognized; yet the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [1] reports that these ecosystems continue to deteriorate worldwide, and with them the capacity to support human well-being. Unless the economic value of all ecosystem services is recognized, their contribution to sustainable economic welfare will be seriously underestimated, resulting in under-investment in conservation and lower incomes. When integrated with the national income accounts, economic valuation can help two distinct but equally important groups: (1) line ministries, private sector and civil society organizations directly involved in the use and management of the marine ecosystem; and (2) agencies responsible for macroeconomic management, like the Ministry of Finance which controls the national budget and makes policies that indirectly affect the marine ecosystem. The former are often quite receptive to economic valuation, which can clearly help them with management. The latter have no direct responsibility for the marine ecosystem. To engage these decision-makers, we must demonstrate that they also have a stake in sustainable ecosystem management. We do this by integrating ecosystem values with national income accounts in order to show the ecosystem's influence on the major indicators of macroeconomic performance, such as the contribution to GDP, employment and the balance of payments, and what can potentially be lost under mismanagement. But it is not sufficient just to estimate values; the distribution of benefits is crucial both for sector-level managers and macroeconomists. Distribution of benefits is a critical factor for both target audiences but for slightly different reasons. At the sectoral level, information about distribution of benefits contributes to improved management; countless studies have shown that incentives for sustainable management are strongest when benefits accrue to those who steward natural resources. But in many developing countries, local communities often lose out to other users; when local communities do not have a sufficient stake in the sustainable management of a natural resource, conservation often fails. At the macroeconomic level, policy-makers in many countries have adopted development plans in which poverty reduction has joined the traditional macroeconomic goals of economic growth and stability. Under such plans, monitoring poverty and income distribution has become a priority for macroeconomists. Valuation that shows the distribution of incomes from marine ecosystem services, especially the share accruing to poor communities, can demonstrate to macroeconomists the role of sustainable marine ecosystem management in achieving poverty reduction goals. This paper reports an application of this ‘environmental accounting’ approach to economic valuation of marine ecosystems in Zanzibar, integrating valuation with national income accounts. Zanzibar is a small, densely populated island archipelago off the coast of Tanzania with many endangered and rare species of corals, fish, seagrass, mangroves, and other flora and fauna. The average per capita GDP was only $415 in 2007 and roughly 50% of the population falls below the poverty line [2] and [3]. Its population of 1.1 million is highly dependent on the marine ecosystem, which, as we will show, accounts for 30% of GDP. Poverty reduction and economic development will depend on sustainable management of its natural capital, especially the coastal and marine ecosystem [4], [5] and [6]. But despite its clear economic importance, the marine ecosystem is seriously degraded due to both human and natural causes: uncontrolled tourism development, rapid population growth, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, overharvesting of mangroves, dumping of untreated wastewater from urban areas and periodic coral bleaching. In the Zanzibari economy of 25 years ago, local communities had free access to the marine ecosystem and received all the benefits, almost entirely from artisanal fishing.1 But from 1985 to 2007, Zanzibar embarked on rapid growth of a tourism based economy—annual tourist arrivals increased from about 19,000 to 219,000. Its spectacular beaches and coral reefs, combined with a rich cultural heritage, make Zanzibar a unique tourist destination and it has been declared a World Heritage Site. But the impact of this development path on the marine environment and local communities, the stewards of the marine ecosystem, were not carefully considered. The local communities are increasingly losing out to other stakeholders and Zanzibar's unique environment is becoming seriously degraded. Economic analysis provides stakeholders with a powerful tool for decision-making based on the economic value of the marine ecosystem. Valuation provides a tool to understand how dependent the economy currently is on the ecosystem and to identify opportunities to promote marine conservation and sustainable development in the future. To do so, we explore: (1) the value of marine ecosystem services in the macroeconomy; and (2) how economic benefits are distributed among different stakeholders. We discuss the incentives or disincentives this creates for marine conservation and sustainable development. The paper is organized as follows: the next section describes the overall methodology and data sources used. Section 3 describes the economic value of each of the major ecosystem services, and the distribution of benefits among five different stakeholder groups in Zanzibar and outside Zanzibar. The final section integrates the valuation of all ecosystem services with the national income accounts, and discusses the policy implications for marine conservation and sustainable development, as well as priorities for further work.

4.1. Marine ecosystem services and the macroeconomy of Zanzibar Marine ecosystem services account for 30% of GDP, 77% of investment, and a large amount of foreign exchange and employment (Table 9). These figures would be even higher if the indirect ecosystem services were included. Despite its clear economic importance, the marine ecosystem is seriously degraded due to both human and natural causes. Why has this happened and what can be done?The detailed economic analysis in the preceding section helps identify some of the reasons for this, based in the distribution of economic benefits and the incentives or disincentives this provides for marine conservation. The economic analysis also can help prioritize actions to address this problem, although a detailed assessment of solutions is beyond the scope of the research project and this paper. Incentives for marine conservation vary a great deal among different stakeholders. The macroeconomic importance of tourism and the income it generates far surpass the value of other ecosystem services. But tourism has largely excluded local communities, even as it claims more and more of coastal and marine resources. Local communities do not have much economic stake in tourism activities—as a whole, they obtain more income from fishing and seaweed than from tourism. Unless there are shared incentives for sustainable management, the future of Zanzibar's marine ecosystem is not promising. Overfishing and destructive fishing practices are one of the major reasons for the decline of Zanzibar's marine ecosystem, affecting both fish populations and coral reefs. But even though local communities bear the long-term consequences from overfishing, under conditions of rapid population growth, open access fishing grounds and at current, low levels of income, they have little incentive to change their fishing practices [33]. Without greater involvement in, and income from, activities that depend on a healthy marine ecosystem, this is unlikely to change. 4.2. Current responses to the degradation of marine ecosystem The response by government, with local NGO and international support, to reduce pressure on fisheries and reefs has been two-fold: (1) promotion of more sustainable marine-based activities, value-adding activities and alternative livelihoods together with (2) establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). Sustainable marine-based activities include (e.g., refs. [34] and [35]). • Aquaculture such as cultivation of half-pearls, milkfish and mangrove crabs. • Seaweed production. Alternative farming methods adapted from Asia are being tried out in a number of pilot sites to increase farmer productivity and income. If total seaweed output is increased sufficiently, value-adding by local processing would be economically feasible, further increasing income. Significant improvements in income from seaweed farming could be achieved with widespread farming of cottonii, the more lucrative seaweed species, but this requires overcoming disease and die-off of this species in Zanzibar. Research to investigate the problem is underway, but there are no solutions at this time. • Capture fishing. Value-chain analysis found that incomes from capture fishing could be increased by providing more cold storage and transport facilities to reduce spoilage, smooth out fish availability over seasons and improve the bargaining position of fishers as sellers. • Dolphin tourism has provided an alternative to fishermen in some communities. At the same time, several MPAs and Conservation Areas have been established over the past 20 years in Zanzibar, but they have had a mixed history. The most successful on Zanzibar are Chumbe Island Coral Park, a privately managed MPA that supports its activities through ecotourism on the island, and Misali Island Conservation Area, managed by local communities with external support from NGOs and the Department of Fisheries. Two others have not been very successful. Mnemba Island MPA is managed by the Department of Fisheries, which collects an entry fee from tourists who dive and snorkel there. Part of that fee is supposed to be given as compensation to the community that traditionally used the fishing area, but there is controversy over the amount to be paid and the community is dissatisfied with the arrangement. Consequently, they have returned to fish there, often while tourists are diving in the same location. Menai Bay Conservation Area has suffered from a lack of resources to monitor and enforce regulations; since it was established, different donors have provided funds for operations, but no sustainable financing system is in place to pay for patrol vessels and enforcement of regulations. Fishermen can only be effectively excluded from MPAs when they have sufficient alternative incomes. Even when they fully understand that fisheries are in serious decline and that MPAs may be needed to promote healthy fishing grounds, if current incomes are low, the present value of those future benefits is too low to affect their behavior. As an alternative to large-scale MPAs, the concept of locally managed marine areas (LMMA), successful in Asia [36], has recently been introduced in one Zanzibari village with some success. The difference is that LMMA are completely under the control of local communities, not something imposed and managed from outside. While not offering as much protection to the marine ecosystem as MPAs, it may be a useful model that could be scaled up to other villages and to a larger scale LMMA. 4.3. Lessons from economic valuation One of the most important roles of economic valuation is to understand tradeoffs among different activities and options for development (refs. [37] and [38] give more detailed discussion of economic valuation). So far, a great deal of effort has been put into promoting fishing, aquaculture, seaweed farming and other alternative livelihood activities in Zanzibar. Yet, in the long-term, even with the best outcomes, these efforts are not likely, on their own, to substantially reduce poverty in Zanzibar, or reduce pressure on fisheries and coral reef because they involve relatively limited numbers of people and the potential increase in income is relatively small. Economic analysis shows that these activities should be viewed as part of a larger effort that includes tourism. The economic importance of tourism is five times the combined size of other ecosystem values. Although local participation in tourism is currently low, it is the only sector with the potential to employ large numbers of people and generate large amounts of revenue. Detailed economic analysis of tourism shows how this can be achieved by promoting the appropriate segments of the tourism industry to achieve both poverty reduction and improved management of marine resources. Not all segments have the same incentive for marine conservation. Large hotels, especially those catering to all-inclusive package tours, currently dominate tourism in Zanzibar. But they not only generate the least benefits for local communities, they also have a relatively weak incentive for promoting the health of the marine ecosystem. In this market segment, many tourists do not participate in any marine activities beyond a boat ride; they spend much of their time on the beach but not diving or snorkeling where the health of the reef and fisheries is essential. Under current arrangements, government obtains most of its revenue from this segment of tourism, so it also has less incentive to make marine conservation a priority. Tourism that depends on a healthy marine environment—part of the up-market and budget tourism which promote eco-tourism—has not been driving the tourism industry in Zanzibar. Budget tourism benefits local communities the most and often has a low environmental impact, but brings in the least revenue for the Zanzibari government. Many countries set their goal for tourism development in terms of a target number of visitors. A better approach would be to set a target revenue stream and decide what type of tourism can meet that goal with the least impact on the environment and society. On Unguja, Zanzibar's main island it may be too late to change tourism policy radically because of the large, and still growing, number of big hotels. But tourism is just developing on Pemba, a relatively pristine island with great ecotourism potential, and it is not too late to reconsider tourism development policy for Pemba. 4.4. Next steps for Zanzibar: investment, improving information and strengthening institutions The purpose of this study was limited to identifying the current economic value of marine ecosystem services, the distribution of benefits among different stakeholders, and the (dis)incentives this creates for sustainable management of the marine environment. While the purpose was not to design a detailed alternative development strategy for Zanzibar,19 the economic analysis, nonetheless, indicates important steps that need to be taken, short term and longer term, with respect to investment, improving the availability and quality of information critical for management, and strengthening of institutions. Understanding why local communities do not fully participate in tourism shows where government's investment priorities should be: • Investment in education and training. The high-value, international tourism industry requires high levels of training and fluency in at least one foreign language. Many Zanzibaris do not receive adequate education at the primary and secondary levels, making them less able to take advantage of the tourism training programs offered by government and private organizations. Greater employment in more skilled, better paid occupations in tourism requires more investment in education as well as post-secondary school tourism training, so that it is equivalent to education obtained in mainland Tanzania, where many tourism workers presently come from [39] and [40]. • Investment in basic infrastructure. Many tourists express dismay at the state of the airport, roads, unreliable electricity supply, and poor solid waste management. High-end tourism requires good infrastructure and maintenance of that infrastructure. Investment in improved waste water treatment and solid waste management would have the added benefit of improving the health of coral reefs, especially around Zanzibar Town [39] and [40]. • Investment to develop activities in the tourism value-chain where Zanzibar has a comparative advantage, notably greater provision of fruits and vegetables for tourism. This has been identified as an intervention that can achieve results in the short term and is being supported by several projects [39]. The greatest obstacle to participation in the food supply for tourism market is the unreliable supply in terms of quantity, timing and quality, and the dispersion of production among many small-scale farmers. The government can assist with organization of farmers’ groups, provision of training for the food requirements of the tourism industry, provision of irrigation, and other actions. The institutional challenge of sustainable management of the marine ecosystem, common to most countries, is the fragmentation of decision-making and management. Comprehensive economic valuation can help overcome fragmentation and build a broad, cross-sectoral alliance of stakeholders by quantifying the common interests and mutual dependence of different stakeholders, and providing a scientific basis for assessing tradeoffs among options for development [37]. There is a saying, “What you cannot measure, you cannot manage.” Analysis also revealed where information and institutions need to be strengthened in order for government agencies to better manage the marine-based economy, specifically • Accurate information about fish catch, capacity and effort is needed for management to better understand both the pressure on fisheries and the contribution of fishing to livelihoods along the entire value-chain. • Accurate information about tourist arrivals and the tourism economy is critical. As noted in the text, the current system of recording tourist arrivals misses about 35% of tourists. • Accurate data about government revenues generated by tourism is needed by the Ministry of Finance to provide overall direction to the macroeconomy. Presently, at least a dozen different government agencies levy various taxes and fees in an uncoordinated way, and do not provide audited reports to the Ministry of Finance. • With more accurate information, the Ministry of Tourism can redefine its objective in terms of a target level of income (to all stakeholders including government) from tourism, rather than a target number of tourists, and design the policies needed to achieve that target level of income. • Institutional leadership is needed to address utilization of the marine ecosystem in a coordinated fashion. Currently, management and decision-making are highly fragmented, supported by the practice of each agency levying its own fees, and lack of a centralized revenue collection process. • Difficult decisions must be made about Zanzibar's fisheries, and this cannot be done without accurate information and leadership. Re-thinking open access may be needed to prevent collapse of Zanzibar's fisheries. In the current global economic recession, tourism has been hard-hit, as have other marine activities that depend on the international market like seaweed farming. In the long-term, the outlook for world tourism is very strong and this must be viewed as a short term setback, not a reason to abandon these activities. Economic growth for Zanzibar lies in international trade, whether export of tourism services or goods like seaweed, and increased vulnerability is a condition of trade and the higher incomes its brings. Finally, a word on what is not included in this analysis: regulating and habitat services. This is a serious omission, but, as mentioned in Section 3.5, the information needed to make an economic assessment is not yet available. Of immediate concern are the coastal protection services of reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves – beach erosion poses a serious threat to coastal villages and tourism. Also of great concern are the habitat services provide by the ecosystem, currently under stress. However, additional biophysical research is needed before we can estimate an economic value of these important services.