انرژی هسته‌ای در توسعه‌ی پایدار: وضعیت فعلی و چشم‌اندازهای آینده

Interest in nuclear power has been revived as a result of volatile fossil fuel prices, concerns about the security of energy supplies, and global climate change. This paper describes the current status and future plans for expansion of nuclear power, the advances in nuclear reactor technology, and their impacts on the associated risks and performance of nuclear power. Advanced nuclear reactors have been designed to be simpler and safer, and to have lower costs than currently operating reactors. By addressing many of the public health and safety risks that plagued the industry since the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, these reactors may help break the current deadlock over nuclear power. In that case, nuclear power could make a significant contribution towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, significant issues persist, fueling reservations among the public and many decision makers. Nuclear safety, disposal of radioactive wastes, and proliferation of nuclear explosives need to be addressed in an effective and credible way if the necessary public support is to be obtained.

In recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in developing nuclear power in both developed and developing countries. The United States, where construction had ceased for decades, has now formally certified new reactor designs. In Europe (with the notable exception of France), where nuclear power development has been in a holding pattern for almost two decades, nuclear energy has been the subject of continuous political debate and is now a key element in the European Union's climate-change policy. After an intense debate, Finland's parliament voted in 2002 to approve building a fifth nuclear power plant—the first such decision to build a new nuclear plant in Western Europe for over a decade. A new White Paper on Nuclear Power put nuclear energy at the core of the UK government's energy policy, and the Government's support for new nuclear build was confirmed in January 2008. In May 2008, two decades after a public referendum resoundingly banned nuclear power and deactivated the country's reactors, Italy announced plans to resume building nuclear plants within five years. And in February 2009, Sweden announced plans to overturn a near 30-year ban on new nuclear plant construction. Debates on new nuclear build are underway in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Hungary. More than 40 developing countries, ranging from the Gulf to Latin America, have recently approached United Nations officials to express interest in starting nuclear power programs (Reuters, 2008). In contrast to North America and most of Western Europe, nuclear power capacity in Asia has been growing significantly. A number of countries in East and South Asia are planning and building new reactors—21 are under construction and there are plans to add 150 more. China, Japan, South Korea and India expected to experience the strongest growth in the region (WNA, 2008a). Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia are also expressing strong interest in nuclear power (Symon, 2008). In late 2007, Egypt announced that it would build several nuclear power plants to meet rising energy demands (Fleishman, 2007). In June 2008, the South African Cabinet approved an ambitious nuclear energy policy contemplating the installation of 20 GW of nuclear power. There are also ambitious plans to expand nuclear power in Latin America. In September 2008, Brazil's top energy official announced the country's intention to set up 50–60 nuclear power plants in the coming half century (Associated Press, 2008). Argentina is planning to double its existing nuclear capacity and Mexico may add eight more reactors by 2025. Chile, Venezuela and Uruguay are expressing strong interest in nuclear energy (Squassoni, 2009). This paper describes the current status and future plans for expansion of nuclear power, the advances in nuclear reactor technology, and their impacts on the associated risks and performance of nuclear power. Developments in the United States are given some prominence because nuclear technology originated there and has expanded, in absolute terms, more than in any other country. In addition, the United States has developed a nuclear regulation and supervision system which is arguably the world's most elaborate and demanding. Thus, whatever happens in the United States is a bellwether of developments elsewhere. This is not to minimize accomplishments and future potential in other countries, some of which have built and operated nuclear plants and are at the forefront of industry developments. But the United States, merely by its size, is bound to have an overwhelming influence on future developments. Similarly, US policy initiatives are closely watched and often used as a springboard for action in other parts of the world.

This paper is motivated by the revived worldwide interest in nuclear power—a result of rapidly rising and volatile fossil fuel prices and concerns about the security of energy supplies and global climate change. Because nuclear power does not generate greenhouse gas emissions, it will likely play a growing role in supplying global demands for electricity. But nuclear power is perhaps the most contentious of all means of electricity generation, arousing strong passions for and against. Although nuclear power is a well-established technology for generating electricity, it has long been considered unattractive by many environmental groups and ordinary citizens. These unfavorable attitudes emanate from concerns about the potential hazards of reactor meltdowns (and their catastrophic ecological and social impacts), unresolved issues related to nuclear waste disposal, and potential problems with diversion and proliferation of fissile material. Indeed, the word “nuclear” strikes fear in the hearts of many people. Public opposition to nuclear power facilities and their association with nuclear weapons are not entirely justified. Still, for nuclear power to gain greater public acceptance, become a significant option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and meet growing needs for electricity supply, four critical problems must be overcome: safety, waste, proliferation, and costs. To assess the potential of nuclear power, its role as a relatively secure, largely carbon-free alternative to fossil fuels must be weighed against its technical risks. This paper describes the current status and future plans for expansion of nuclear power, the advances in nuclear reactor technology, and their impacts on the associated risks and performance of nuclear power. Advanced nuclear reactors have been designed to be simpler and safer, and have lower cost than currently operating reactors. By addressing many of the public health and safety risks that plagued the industry since 1979, these reactors offer some promise in breaking the political deadlock over nuclear power. Moreover, the lowering of capital costs via simplification and modification of plant design could substantially enhance the competitive position of nuclear power—provided these lower costs are proven by the experience from the construction of the first units to be completed under the “nuclear renaissance.” Adding to these factors favoring nuclear power is the significant contribution it could make to stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change.