اثر منابع طبیعی در سیاست توسعه پایدار: رویکرد اثرات جانبی غیر پایدار

The debate about the importance of non-renewable resources for economic development between optimists and pessimists shows that the extensive depletion of non-renewable resources, particularly oil, along with a higher level of consumption could have a significant impact on the economic development of future generations. Based on this debate, this paper proposes criteria under which the depletion of non-renewable resources would create excess costs for future generations. Therefore, this paper aims to answer the question “What will be the impact of the depletion of non-renewable resources on sustainable economic development?” Accordingly, a sustainable development policy appears feasible by minimizing non-sustainable externalities which derive from future externalities that weigh the benefits from a previous employment of natural resources. The research based on qualitative analysis clarifies the reasons for and the extents of taking sustainability into account as well as points to difficulties of implementing policies to time the transition towards a sustainable economic development. Finally, the research shows the implications of this approach for environmental degradation, the depletion of non-renewable resources and energy production.

The fluctuations of the oil price in the past demonstrate the influence of non-renewable resources on global economic growth. Not only are consumers highly concerned about the price of oil, most companies consider any rise as a major threat to their profitability. Many scholars, such as Simmons (2005) and Watkins (2006), have discussed the impact of the depletion of natural resources on economic growth and their prognosis for the future falls into two basic camps. Pessimists, such as Meadows (1992), Deffeyes (2001) or Simmons (2005), argue that growth is limited by the finite nature of resources—the rising price of oil indicates a near term exhaustion of this resource, and as a consequence, the decline or impossibility of economic growth. On the other hand, Simon (1996), Radetzki (2002) and Watkins (2006) take an optimistic perspective and argue that growth is unlimited. They look at the price of oil from the viewpoint of price mechanisms for the aggregate supply of goods and their substitutes. Both perspectives, as will be subsequently explained, have merits as well as flaws in their argumentation. Yet they provide essential insights for a better understanding of the depletion of natural resources for sustainable development. For the purpose of this paper it is worthwhile to look at the meaning of economic growth from a broader perspective. Although people have traditionally been more concerned about economic development during their life time, but as the example of global warming shows, people became more and more aware of the long-term impact of their economic life style during the last decades. In order to grasp the meaning of sustainability for development properly, it is necessary to set the time horizon further away. The approach of non-sustainable externalities proposes conditions, under which governments would have to choose between higher present consumption of non-renewable resources and future development. Currently, governments generally consider the immediate interests of their citizens and hence tend to disregard its impact on subsequent generations. The high public debts of many developed countries illustrate the choice governments have to make between redistributing resources to people and investing in their countries’ long-term future economic competitiveness. When analyzing global sustainable development, this pattern is an obstacle in the shift from the depletion of non-renewable resources towards the employment of renewable substitutes. Bazhanov (2006) analyzes possible transition paths for a gradual substitution of non-renewable resources, but concludes that technical restrictions do not allow for a smooth transition to a sustainable resource employment. Past economic development has been characterized by the depletion of resources and resulted in the pollution of the environment, and most scholars agree that we cannot continue forever in this manner, because pollution and depletion will result in serious consequences for future development (Homer-Dixon, 2001). This paper proposes to give an overview of the arguments of the two schools of thought regarding the use of natural resources for economic development and will further expand this discourse by applying the concept of sustainability in order to suggest the approach of non-sustainable externalities. This paper aims to answer the questions “What will be the impact of the depletion of non-renewable resources on sustainable economic development?” and “Under what conditions will current efforts of employing renewable resources create negative or positive externalities for future generations?” Furthermore, this paper points to the difficulties of implementing policies to time the transition towards a sustainable use of resources. Finally, the paper considers limitations of this approach for a policy for sustainable development. In the following, Section 1 will clarify the meaning of sustainable development in terms of natural resources. Section 2 will review the arguments of both optimists and pessimists on future development. Section 3 will suggest a framework for the depletion of non-renewable resources under the condition of sustainability by applying the concept of externalities. Finally, Section 4 will point out the implications of policy approaches for a sustainable development policy.

The debate between the optimists and the pessimists shows that the depletion of non-renewable resources will have a significant impact on the economic development of future generations. A continued depletion is unlikely to lead to a collapse of economic development and the use of resources will due to relatively cheaper renewables more or less smoothly shift towards a sustainable economic development. Based on this discussion, this paper proposes to answer the questions “What is the impact of the depletion of non-renewable resources on sustainable economic development?” and “Under what conditions will current efforts of employing renewable resources state negative or positive externalities for future generations?” In order to determine the beneficiary as well as the range of benefits and costs caused by current resource depletion, the authors propose the approach of non-sustainable externalities by applying the concept of externalities. According to this concept current economic development is approaching a point in time when renewable substitutes are available at lower prices than non-renewable resources. If this point occurs before the transition towards the input of renewable resources is accomplished, there may emerge non-sustainable externalities from a continued employment of costly non-renewable resources if exceeding previous benefits. A policy for sustainable development would seek to minimize non-sustainable externalities in order to facilitate a smooth transition towards a sustainable economic development. But a complex of mutually dependent factors poses obstacles to time the transition accurately and makes it difficult to determine an optimal path towards the employment of renewable resources. As well, the rate of depletion changes over time according to the development of new technologies, the employment of substitutes, new discoveries of natural resources, changes in consumer behavior, and changes of the structural framework of the global economy. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the actual price development of both renewable and non-renewable resources. Finally, governmental intervention is necessary where the market system itself does not take sustainability sufficiently into account.