اثرات سناریوهای استفاده از انرژی کوزوو و انتشار گازهای همراه در تغییر آب و هوا و توسعه پایدار

Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95–97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, NOx, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO2, dust CHx, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000–2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

Because emission of GHG is regionally driven with global consequences, the harnessing of renewable energy sources regionally in each country and improvement of the new technology on burning the fossil fuels is vital to constraining the extent of climate change [1] and [2]. In the following we present a case study about possibilities for transformation of energy production and use in Kosovo towards cleaner energy technologies, which would also reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution that represents significant challenges, because Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe with 95–97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest CO2 output per GDP per unit of economic activity, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. In this relation we must consider the fact that Kosovo is a developing country [3] and [4]. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of GHG (CO2, CH4, NOx, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO2, dust, etc.) i.e., for electricity generation and transportation emission systems. Models presented here for the electricity generation and transportation sectors, incorporate environmental policies and new clean technologies which will reduce the GHG and air pollution in both sectors and increase the coefficient of the exploitation of lignite in electricity generation sector, ensuring a sustainable energy demand–supply for Kosovo, that becomes increasingly environmentally compatible. For electricity emission system we develop two scenarios. According to scenario 1, electric power is produced 95–97% from the lignite and only 3–5% from renewable resources for the time period 2000–2025. As a result of the energy production from lignite we have an increase in emission of CO2 other GHGs and air pollution. According to scenario 2, the renewable energy will increase from the year 2015 to the year 2025 from 8% to 15% of total energy production in Kosovo whereas the reduction of CO2 emission up to 20.7% in comparison with the year 2006. Also we will have significant reduction for other GHGs (CH4 and NOx) and air pollutants (SO2, dust and CO). In Modelling the Dynamic mobile source emission systems in Kosovo, at first emissions of GHGs (CO2, CH4 and NOx) and air pollutants (SO2, dust, CHx and CO) from two types of vehicles: light and heavy vehicles (cars, buses, tractors, vans, trailers, etc.), is calculated. Total emission from transport is calculated for the year interval t = 2000–2025. A study undertaken by Pasternak in year 2000, demonstrated a close correlation between per capita electricity consumption and overall HDI score. Data for countries in South-East Europe and for Kosovo in 2004 show similar findings to Pasternak’s study.

Our model for Kosovo energy demand–supply and emission system, according to participation of renewable energy in total energy, predicts high emission of CO2 in short term from year 2000 to the year 2010, both in mobile source emission system and electricity power emission system in Kosovo. In the middle term from 2010 to 2015, stabilization and slight decreases in other GHG and air pollutions emission occur. In the long term from year 2015 to 2025 we will have a gradual reduction in CO2 by 20% in comparison with the year 2006 also, we will have a significant reduction for other GHG (CH4 57% and NOx 48%) and air pollutants (dust 70%, SO2 52%, CHx 38% and CO 27%) in the year 2025 in comparison with the year 2006. Considering the fact that Kosovo territory is rich with high reserves of lignite and that it is a developing country, according to all the scenarios presented in this model, 85–95% of the electric energy production will be provided by lignite. If the energy sector is developed according to the scenario 1 with 95% of energy production from lignite, then we will have a continual increase of energy production as well as an increase in GDP due to the export. Nevertheless, this increase will not improve energy efficiency per unit of economic activity, because at the same time we will have a degradation of environment and an increase of GHG emission. Therefore, the scenario 1 is not a guarantee of a sustainable development of Kosovo. If the energy sector is developed according to the scenario 2 with 85% of energy production from lignite, which foresees that this energy be produced in new TPP expected to be built by foreign investors, with an efficient and clean advanced technology of burning of lignite, and the participation of up to 15% of renewable energy production, then we will have an increase of electric energy production up to 3500 kW/capita. An increase in GDP together with an increase of efficiency per unit of economic activity will be followed by a significant reduction of GHGs and other air pollutants. According to Pasternak, 3500 kW h/capita which is to be achieved in 2025, as well as reduction of CO2 in year 2025 for about 20% other GHGs and air pollution in comparison with emission in year 2006, provides an index of about 0.85 for the Human Development Index, a value similar to Croatia today. Therefore, according to this scenario, Kosovo is well positioned to achieve sustainable development targets for the year 2025.