مسیرهای تغییر در تحرک اجتماعی: صنعتی سازی، آموزش و پرورش و سیالیت رشد در برزیل

This paper explores the change in intergenerational class mobility over the last quarter-century in Brazil. Using repeated cross-sectional surveys between the early 1970s and the late 1990s and a counterfactual approach, we disentangle cohort from period interpretations of change, and examine the mechanisms driving change in fluidity among Brazilian men. We detect a substantial increase in social fluidity over time, which emerges from period transformation, rather than cohort replacement. This trend departs from industrialized nations, where growing fluidity has been found to be entirely driven by the replacement of older, more rigid cohorts by younger, more fluid ones, and to emerge from educational equalization and a “compositional effect”—educational expansion combined with a weaker intergenerational association among those with higher education. In contrast, in a context of rapid late industrialization, two mechanisms account for growing fluidity in Brazil: the decline in the “economic returns to schooling”, and the weakening of the direct influence of class origins on class destination, net of education. We discuss the implications of these patterns for the understanding of mobility dynamics in different national contexts.