اتحاد اوراسیا (یا یک اتحاد جماهیر شوروی)؟ پیامدهای ادغام اقتصادی بیشتر در کشورهای مستقل مشترک المنافع

On January 1, 2012, the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia took a big step in regional integration by removing all barriers to trade, capital, and labor movements between the three countries. Policymakers have signaled that even this landmark step is merely a way station en route to a comprehensive ‘Eurasian Union’ by 2015. However, is this idea of greater integration a good one, and if so, what shape should the integration take? This article examines the opportunities and challenges for both deeper (i.e., more intensive) and broader (i.e., more inclusive) integration in the Eurasian space and concludes that greater integration will work for all only if it is based on fostering the trade liberalization that has been missing from the region. Moreover, including Ukraine is not necessary for the integration to succeed, but Central Asian nations should be encouraged to follow the example of a liberalized Eurasian Union. Acting as the European Union did in the post-war era, the Eurasian Union could help member countries take the liberalizing steps they could not take on their own.