عوامل مؤثر بر سازگاری شرکت های بزرگ به تغییرات آب و هوایی در گردشگری زمستان: تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصاد سنجی

While corporate adaptation strategies in response to climate change have been characterized, the determinants of adaptation have not been comprehensively analyzed. Knowledge of these determinants is particularly useful for policy makers to provide favorable conditions in support of corporate adaptation measures. Based on unique data from a survey of Swiss ski lift operators, this paper empirically examines such determinants at the business level. Our econometric analysis with linear regression and count data models finds a positive influence of the awareness of possible climate change effects on the scope of corporate adaptation. Surprisingly, no significant influence of the vulnerability to climate change effects on the scope of adaptation could be found. Finally, the dependency on the affected business and the ability to adapt influence the specific strategic directions of corporate adaptation.

Despite ongoing activities to mitigate climate change, a further increase in the earth's surface temperature is inevitable and will lead to effects such as changes in frequencies of extreme weather events and levels of precipitation (IPCC, 2007). These direct climate change effects are expected to have significant impacts on the natural environment and society at different spatial and time levels. Within society, companies are important entities by which adaptation to climate change effects occurs. The ways in which affected companies adapt will, to a large extent, determine the nature and scale of impacts and possibly the companies’ survival in the long-run. Research on adaptation as a corporate response to climate change effects is still at an early stage (Arnell and Delaney, 2006). Previous studies predominantly focused on describing adaptation by means of case study research in different sectors such as agriculture (e.g. Schneider et al., 2000 and Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008), residential construction (e.g. Hertin et al., 2003) and winter tourism (e.g. König and Abegg, 1997, Abegg et al., 2007 and Scott and McBoyle, 2007). While some authors categorized adaptation measures by their type, such as commercial, technological or financial measures (Smit and Skinner, 2002 and Hertin et al., 2003), others holistically described entire adaptation strategies they observe as “risk assessment and options appraisal” or “bearing and managing risks” (Berkhout et al., 2006). However, only few scholars (e.g. Arnell and Delaney, 2006) referred to the strategic objectives that different adaptation measures serve. In addition, while some determinants of corporate adaptation to climate change such as characteristics of the respective company or managerial perceptions about climate change have been proposed (Fankhauser et al., 1999 and Bleda and Shackley, 2008), they have not been investigated comprehensively. Yet, knowledge about these determinants is particularly important to enable policy makers to support favorable conditions for corporate adaptation. Based on a new framework of adaptation strategies and on unique data from a survey of Swiss ski lift operators, this paper therefore empirically examines such determinants. In this respect, the scope of corporate adaptation (measured by the total number of adaptation measures) as well as measures that companies take to follow specific strategic directions of corporate adaptation (such as to protect the affected business) are analyzed. We consider the case of ski lift operators because they are highly affected by climate change due to their dependency on natural snow availability, making adaptation strategies seem especially relevant (Scott et al., 2003, Scott et al., 2008 and Wolfsegger et al., 2008). Building upon previous case study research, Section 2 develops a general framework of corporate adaptation strategies and derives hypotheses for an econometric analysis. In Section 3 we discuss to what extent winter tourism and particularly ski lift operators are specifically affected by climate change. Section 4 describes our data set and the variables in our econometric analysis, while Section 5 presents the empirical results. The final section discusses these results and concludes by developing recommendations for policy makers.

For the analysis of corporate adaptation, researchers predominantly observed and described adaptation strategies by means of case study analysis in various industries (e.g. Smit and Skinner, 2002, Hertin et al., 2003 and Arnell and Delaney, 2006). Building upon previous research this paper develops a new framework of corporate adaptation measures and applies unique data from a survey of Swiss ski lift operators to empirically examine the determinants of the adaptation scope (i.e. the total number of adaptation measures) and of the number of measures that companies take to follow certain strategic directions of corporate adaptation. We specifically analyze factors that had previously been suggested by other researchers as possible determinants for corporate adaptation (Fankhauser et al., 1999 and Smit et al., 2000). Methodologically, we apply count data models (especially negative binomial models) in addition to the common linear regression model in our econometric analysis. As one would expect, we find that the awareness of possible climate change effects has a positive impact on the scope of corporate adaptation. In contrast, we cannot confirm the hypothesis that the vulnerability of the affected business positively influences the adaptation scope. This result implies that the most vulnerable companies are not the ones to engage most in adaptation measures. A possible explanation could be a u-shaped rather than a linear relationship between the vulnerability and adaptation scope. Such a relationship would suggest that neither extremely vulnerable companies adapt strongly (as they might not believe in survival by adaptation) nor do companies with a very low vulnerability (as they might not see the need for adaptation). This relationship should be further analyzed in future research. Yet, the analysis identifies a positive impact of the vulnerability on measures to share risks of financial impacts. Our econometric analysis also shows that the dependency on the affected business and the ability to adapt are important determinants for measures that companies take to follow specific strategic directions of adaptation. Specifically, a higher dependency leads companies to pursue more measures to protect their affected business. Similarly, a higher ability to adapt entails the pursuit of more measures to protect as well as to expand beyond the affected business. One of our key findings is therefore that some factors not only influence the scope of adaptation, but also the number of measures along the different strategic directions of corporate adaptation. Surprisingly, though, we did not find a significant influence of perceived uncertainty on measures along any of these directions. Climate change will continue to have significant effects requiring companies in various industries and regions to adapt appropriately at a local level. Policy makers should guide this process to enable effective and cost-efficient adaptation to occur because some forms of adaptation will require investment decisions with long planning and amortization times (Stern, 2006). In this respect, our findings are valuable as they provide an understanding of how policy makers can support the adaptation process. Policy makers could increase the scope of corporate adaptation by influencing the level of awareness of possible climate change effects. This could, for example, include intensively addressing the topic or providing research and information such as improved climate forecasting (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Also, as the most vulnerable companies do not seem to adapt most, policy makers should first investigate the reasons for limited adaptation by highly vulnerable companies and second determine in which situations a support of adaptation makes economic sense (i.e. adaptation might no longer be economically viable for some highly vulnerable companies). This support could then be targeted at enhancing a company's ability to adapt in form of financial support (e.g. tax breaks on adaptation investments, subsidies) or capability building (e.g. technical support, skills trainings), as the ability has a positive impact on measures to protect and expand beyond the core business. It could also be targeted at specific adaptation measures such as those to share risks with an insurance that can help to distribute the economic impact of particularly severe climatic events over several years, thereby lowering risks of financial default. Moreover, policy makers could attempt to bring corporate adaptation in line with their desired direction of local or regional adaptation. If, for example, policy makers seek to motivate companies to expand beyond the affected business rather than protecting it, they would have to lower the dependency of the companies, e.g. by incentivizing new business development activities. These examples show how policy makers could consider the active support of corporate adaptation on a broader level and rethink the future of entire regions or industries affected by climate change. It should be noted that although companies in our study were asked to only indicate measures implemented in response to a decrease in natural snow availability, it cannot be ruled out that some measures are implemented due to non-climate-change-related benefits. Thus, in future studies the reasons for implementing measures could be investigated in more detail. This would help to identify adaptation measures with co-benefits beyond climate change that should exhibit lower implementation barriers and could receive specific political support. Also, our study exclusively analyzes ski lift operators. The consideration of adaptation strategies in this sector is particularly interesting because these companies are strongly affected by climate change due to their dependency on natural snow availability. Nevertheless, in the future it would also be interesting to empirically analyze other industries affected by climate change such as the construction or insurance sector. Furthermore, a comparative study of industries that are only weakly affected by climate change would also be appealing.