هنر حالات و برنامه ریزی استراتژیک: ابزار و مشکلات

The term strategy has been misused and even abused. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clarification is needed if we are to understand one another. As a prolongation of the work done by the Rand Corporation in the 1960s, strategic planning, management and prospective approaches have been developed to help organizations master change. Over the past 25 years, we have contributed by creating or further developing various methodologies and procedures such as the Mactor and MICMAC methods for use in scenario building. These tools are doubly powerful in that they stimulate the imagination, reduce collective biases, and promote appropriation. One of the main functions of the strategic futures exercise is to eliminate two errors that we usually describe as the “hammer's risk” and the “nail's dream.” In other words, we forget what a hammer's function is when staring at a nail (the nail's dream) or we know how to use a hammer and imagine that every problem is like a nail (the hammer's risk). In our case, we strive to give simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, common sense, and intuition of the futurist also count!

Anticipation is not widely practiced by decision makers because when things are going well, they can manage without it, and when things are going badly, it is too late to see beyond the ends of their noses. Fast action is already urgently required! Yet reaction is not an end in itself. Although desirable in the short term, it leads nowhere if not directed towards the firm's long-term objectives. As Seneca said, “there is no favourable wind for the man who knows not where he is going.” Action becomes meaningless without a goal, and only anticipation points the way to action and gives it both meaning and direction. Similarly, la prospective 1 cannot generally be dissociated from strategy; hence, the term strategic prospective [1]. Strategic prospective is not only an exploratory approach (strategic anticipation), but also a normative one. Continuing the tradition of strategic planning and strategic management, strategic prospective emphasizes the importance of long-range and alternative thinking in strategic decision-making processes. However, the complexity of strategic problems, and the need to resolve them collectively means using methods that are as rigorous and participatory as possible to recognize the problem and find acceptable solutions. Of course, we must keep in mind the limits imposed by formalization and remember that people are guided by intuition and passion as well as logic. Our models are inventions of the mind that represent a world unwilling to remain locked up in a cage of equations. And all the better, because without this freedom, any will driven by desire would lead nowhere! As a result, our conviction is: use all the powers of reason while remaining aware of both the inherent limits and virtues. Intuition and reason are not opposite, but complementary faculties. People cannot be reduced to a rational mind (the left hemisphere); they are also driven by the emotional faculties (the right hemisphere). It is time we stopped opposing intuitive vision and rational thinking, because both are necessary. The choice depends on circumstances. Rational and heuristic schools of scenario planning only appear to be in opposition, whereas, in fact, they are complementary. A sound initial reflection, imbued with relevance and consistency, reinforces the efficiency of action and reaction in the face of events. The same applies to reflexes; they are always better after an intensive workout.