طبقه بندی و تجزیه و تحلیل عملکرد از مصرف کنندگان اولیه انرژی در 1980-1999

Five primary energy consumer classes, namely Super, Major, Big, Medium and Small, are proposed, depending on the polymodal characteristics of the frequency distribution curve of their share of the total. The total primary energy consumption and its annual additions decrease, whereas the rates increase steadily from the Super to the Medium consumers. Since the frequency distribution histogram of additional primary energy consumptions of the Medium and above consumers during 1980–1999 is a typical bell shaped curve, the additional amounts and rates are used together to evaluate the performance levels of the countries in both parameters. The most successful countries are the USA, China, South Korea, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Turkey and Iran. The reason why the Super consumer USA and the Major consumer China are the biggest energy markets is because they are the first two biggest economies in the world. The success of the developing Asian countries is mostly related to their economic ties with the Super consumer USA. Among the other emerging markets, Turkey’s primary energy demand has grown more rapidly than that of Iran and is expected to continue growing in the future. The emerging Medium and Big consumer markets will continue to play a significant role in the world’s energy sector during the first two decades of the 21st century.

Regional distribution of the world’s primary energy consumption has never been uniform in the past. For instance, while North America consumes around 30% of the world’s total primary energy, Africa’s share remains at only 3% recently. About half of the world’s total has been consumed only in North America and Western Europe together and the rest in the other five regions. On the other hand, the major energy producing regions, the Middle East, Central and South America and Africa, consume only about 13% of the world’s total energy. The primary energy consumption of each country is even more scattered than their regional distribution. They range from values close to zero to 97.5 QBtu with an average of 1.74 QBtu in 1999. Such distribution patterns usually prevent us from generalizing the consumer behavior and market performances of related countries and investigating the factors affecting them. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to first classify the countries according to their primary energy consumptions based on their frequency distribution histograms of 1999. The performances of the primary energy consumption classes in developing their demand capacity from 1980 to 1999 are also evaluated. With this purpose, the annual increase of primary energy consumptions is studied together with its rate of change. Finally, a few of the most significant factors influencing energy market performances are discussed. The abbreviations “TPEC”, “RPEC” and “APEC”, which will be used throughout the paper, stand for “total primary energy consumption”, “rate of primary energy consumption” and “additional primary energy consumption”, respectively. TPEC denotes the total amount of primary energy consumed in a year, whereas RPEC and APEC are the annual rate of change and the amount of change in that particular year, respectively. Unless otherwise indicated, the data used in this study are obtained from the USA Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) electronic data banks [1].

The World Energy Council identified the key drivers shaping global energy supply and its use as population growth, economic and social development, financial and institutional conditions, local/regional and global environmental concerns, efficiency of energy supply and use, technological innovation and development and access to sufficient modern energy in the developing countries [4]. However, in most of the equations used for energy modeling, primary energy demand is basically accepted to be a function of economic activity and end user prices (e.g. Ref. [5]). Economic growth is accepted as the most important driver of primary energy demand because a nearly linear relationship exists between the demand and GDP in market economies, especially after 1982 (e.g. Refs. [4] and [5]). The reason why the Super consumer USA and the Major consumer China are the “top energy markets” is, hence, obvious. The USA is the largest economy in the world and produces more than one fifth of the world’s and close to 40% of the OECD’s economic output [5]. Similarly, the world’s most populous country, China, is the second largest economy in the world after the United States. China, which is now ranked 11th, is expected soon to be among the world’s top 10 trading economies. The USA’s share of the world’s primary energy consumption has always been the highest among other countries, reaching about one quarter of the world’s consumption for the last couple of decades. The strong correlation between the USA and the world historical APEC diagrams is another proof of the USA’s influence on the world’s energy consumption patterns. On the other hand, China is the second largest primary energy consumer behind the USA and the third largest energy producer after the USA and the RF. Additionally, the USA, which is second after Saudi Arabia in oil production, second after the RF in natural gas production and first in both oil and natural gas consumption, is by far the most significant player in the petroleum industry [6]. China, which is third after the USA and the RF in natural gas consumption and is expected to be a major importer of crude oil in the very near future, is also the world’s largest consumer of coal with about 30% of the world’s total [5]. Among the top energy markets, South Korea, Thailand, India, Indonesia and Taiwan, which are characterized by medium to high RPEC averages, are classified as “Developing Asia” by the USA’s Energy Information Administration [7]. The high performances of these emerging markets in developing primary energy demand during the studied period are related to their close ties with the Super consumer USA’s economy, since the USA is the largest export market for many of these countries. Economic recession in the USA has always had more negative impacts on these countries than the others, since it means lowered demand for imports, as is the case during 2001–2002 [7]. Among the secondarily important emerging markets, in Turkey, primary energy demand has grown more rapidly than in Iran and is expected to continue to grow in the future [8]. With its dynamic development and rapid population growth, Turkey’s performance is expected to be higher in the future than at present [3]. Energy prices are also important, since low end user prices mostly result in intense energy use. During economic growth, energy prices become the fundamental factor affecting energy use, while the impact of other factors decreases. The dominance of hydrocarbons (oil is 40% and natural gas is 25%) in today’s energy mix eliminates all doubts about the role of petroleum prices in shaping the world energy consumption patterns. For instance, the prices in 1980, which have been the highest in the history of petroleum, caused sharp decreases in TPEC and APEC in 1980 and 1981. The EIA has estimated that world oil prices will reach $25 per barrel in 2000 dollars ($42 per barrel in nominal dollars) at the end of 2020 [7]. This is about double the price band the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has defined as its preferred range at present. However, it should also be kept in mind that the fastest growing fossil fuel in at least 20 years is usually projected to be natural gas not oil. Many forecasters expect, in reference scenarios, the world primary energy demand to grow by around 2% annually during the next 20 years (e.g. Refs. [4], [7], [9] and [10]. This is about 0.4% more than the average rate during the last two decades. However, developing countries are projected to account for 60% of the world’s total primary energy demand compared to the developed countries’ 30% for the same period, although per capita energy consumption will remain much lower in developing countries [7] and [11]). Therefore, the emerging Medium and Big consumer markets, in which the energy demand is projected to grow on an average of 4% annually, seem to continue to play a significant role in the world’s energy sector for at least two decades into the 21st century.