برون سپاری و کامپیوترها : تاثیر بر سطح مهارت شهری و اجاره

Cities in the U.S. with a higher initial share of college graduates have had a greater subsequent increase in this share over the past two decades. Concurrently, housing prices have grown faster in these skilled cities. This paper argues that the diffusion of computers and outsourcing may partly explain these two phenomena. In the presented model, skilled workers are more productive in skilled cities and need unskilled support services. The cities' unskilled workers can perform the support services, but when it is cheaper, such services can be undertaken by computers or outsourced to less-skilled cities. New technologies facilitating computerization and outsourcing can increase the skill share and housing prices in skilled cities relative to less-skilled cities, under reasonable assumptions. The basic economics is that the new technologies diminish the demand for unskilled workers in skilled cities and permit skilled workers to earn higher wages, which in turn increases the supply of skilled workers in skilled cities and drives up housing prices. Empirically, this paper documents five stylized facts that the theory can rationalize. Particularly important is rising skill premium in skilled cities relative to less-skilled cities, which supports a production theory involving shifts in labor demand.

There are two pronounced trends for U.S. cities. First, cities like Boston and New York with a higher initial skill share, which is defined as the share of workers having a bachelor's degree, have had a greater subsequent increase in this share ( Glaeser, 1994 and Berry & Glaeser, 2005). Second, these skilled cities, which have a higher initial skill share, have also undergone faster growth in housing prices (Glaeser, 2000). While various explanations, such as a consumer theory featuring an increased supply of skilled workers in the skilled cities, can connect these two trends, this paper proposes a production theory involving technological changes and shifts in labor demand. The proposed theory is motivated by two salient technological changes: a decrease in communication costs (Doms, 2005) facilitating outsourcing1 and a decrease in computing prices (Gordon, 1990 and Jorgenson, 2001) triggering computerization, i.e., office automation. The theory suggests that both technological changes can increase the skill share and housing prices in skilled cities relative to less-skilled cities under reasonable assumptions. The theory is also consistent with three additional stylized facts. First, unskilled business support jobs are increasingly concentrated in less-skilled cities, and this is not yet mentioned in literature. Second, computers are more intensively used in skilled cities. These two facts make outsourcing and computerization potential explanations for why skilled and less-skilled cities are increasingly dissimilar. Third, skill premium increases faster in skilled cities, which is also important as this supports a theory involving labor demand shifts.

Using a model with technology–skill complementarity and heterogeneous productivity, this paper analyzes how outsourcing and computerization could affect spatial allocation of production activities and impact the cities' labor and housing markets. The paper documents five stylized facts: (i) Housing prices increase faster in skilled cities. (ii) Skill share increases faster in skilled cities. (iii) Unskilled business support jobs are increasingly concentrated in less-skilled cities. (iv) Skilled cities use computers more intensively. (v) Skill premium increases faster in skilled cities. Furthermore, the research identifies a correlation between the emergence of these facts and computer prices, although the correlation check is not feasible for prices of communications due to data constraint. The model's ability to simultaneously capture these five stylized facts with a decrease in prices of either computers or communications suggests that computerization and domestic outsourcing may be good explanations for the rise of skilled cities and thus deserve more research attention then they currently receive. The paper's simulation exercise suggests that human capital spillovers can enlarge the impacts of outsourcing and computerization. This externality might raise efficiency and policy questions. For instance, should governments encourage outsourcing? Outsourcing could lead to more efficient use of spaces, but would people in less-skilled cities left behind? Particularly, if neighborhood effects are important, being isolated from skilled people might have an adverse impact on less-skilled cities' residents and their children. This deserves future research. Additionally, future research may consider threshold externality. As mentioned, 2.1 and 2.2, the correlations between initial skill share and later changes in housing prices and skill share seem to be largely affected by the most highly skilled cities. This might suggest existence of nonlinear, threshold effects. Future research could consider city growth models with threshold externality of human capital to further understand the rise of skilled cities.