سه سناریو برای روابط اتحادیه اروپا و چین 2025

The year 2016 was a turning year for international relations. Under the global threat of terrorism and in the climate of ‘postfactual’ politics and large political changes, the trust in western political systems has severely been shaken. It is within this climate that deliberating the future of one of the most important international relationships, namely that between the European Union and the People’s Republic of China, is urgently required. Using the methodology of several scenario workshops working from the identification of key drivers by international experts to developing several scenarios based on combinations of these drivers, this research ties into current future studies. Three scenarios were chosen and their ‘histories of the future’ reflect the outlook of an economically and politically strengthened China vis-à-vis the European Union, while differences remain on the benefits and losses implied for European countries depending on their ability to stay united within the European Union. The role of the US and the trilateral relationship emerges as an important determinant of the bilateral relationship as well. The driver of technological leadership, however, is the area in which European policy is most able to influence and adapt to the changes implied by the three scenarios.