سناریوهایی برای صنعت حمل و نقل هوایی : تجزیه و تحلیل مبتنی بر دلفی برای سال 2025

A Delphi panel of aviation experts is used to anticipate probable and wildcard scenarios on the future of aviation in 2025. According to the experts’ estimations, the passenger, business aviation, and air cargo segments will be faced with 27 probable high-impact developments. These include long-haul growth primarily linked to emerging countries, a number of substitution threats, liberalization and deregulation, increasing industry vulnerability, finiteness of fossil fuels, and emissions trading. The emergence of low-cost cargo carriers and air cargo substitution by sea transportation were identified as potential surprises. Several wildcard scenarios were identified such as natural catastrophes, era of virtual communication, and home-producing “fabbing” society.

The future of the aviation industry is dynamic and poses many opportunities and threats. The passenger, business and air cargo industry segments are experiencing strong long-term growth rates, but are also confronted with short-term volatility and shocks as a result of an increasingly complex and dynamic environment. Further liberalization and deregulation, intensifying competition, changing customer demands and resource scarcity are just a few of the factors contributing to a more turbulent and uncertain future for aviation. Scenario planning is a way of addressing uncertainty to do long-term planning and support decisions. Here scenarios are developed to examine potential long-term developments in the aviation industry with a view to supporting aviation managers in developing robust long-range future strategies and to challenge strategies that are already in place. To consider what is the most probable scenario for the future of aviation 40 projections are developed portraying potential developments in the social, technological, economic and political environment.

This paper shows that various high-impact eventualities, potential surprises and wild card scenarios are conceivable alongside a probable scenario for future of aviation in the year 2025. Therefore, long-term planning based on the pure extrapolation of historical data is dangerous, does not necessarily cover all potential developments and might be misleading. The scenarios developed should consequently be used as a basis for strategy and contingency planning. For organizations already investing in environmental scanning, the Delphi data and scenarios can provide a validation or expansion of their own scans. The aviation scenarios developed might be used to update or develop new strategies or to test existing strategies with respect to their robustness and adequacy. The wildcards are particularly suitable for developing contingency plans for the future and might be integrated into corporate risk management and early warning systems.