ترکیب تجزیه و تحلیل متقارن، تجزیه و تحلیل سناریو، روش دلفی، و مدل اشاعه نوآوری برای تجزیه و تحلیل توسعه محصولات نوآورانه در بازار تلویزیون تایوان

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers' needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan's TV market over the next 10 years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.

When a new-generation product is introduced into the market, older ones, especially in high-tech industries, may either continue to exist or be replaced by the newer product. Therefore, the introduction of a new-generation product results in diffusion and substitution effects in the market. To better understand and describe this process, Fisher and Pry [1] developed the technological substitution model to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technology. However, this model does not address levels of scale for each generation, and market shares exhibit much more regularity than do absolute scales [2]. Marchetti and Nakicenovic [3] revised Fisher and Pry's [1] model to make it applicable to the analysis of more than two competitive technologies. Furthermore, Norton and Bass [2] proposed a multigenerational diffusion model that takes into account diffusion effects, substitution effects, and time-varying factors. Nevertheless, this model is limited by insufficient data for the latest generation product. Scenario analysis produces rich and complex portraits of possible future scenarios; however, it does not provide objective quantifiable forecasting results [4]. For that reason, some researchers have combined scenario analysis (to address an uncertain future) and quantitative methods to analyze the future development of new-generation technology. For example, Wang and Lan [5] combined scenario analysis and the technological substitution model to forecast new-generation technological development. Tseng et al. [6] combined scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the technological substitution model to analyze the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV market. However, they did not consider consumers' heterogeneity. Jun and Park [7] were the first to propose a model that incorporates both diffusion and choice effects to capture simultaneously the diffusion and substitution processes for each successive generation of a durable technology; Jun et al. [8] and Kim et al. [9] revised this model. Lee et al. [10] proposed a two-stage model that uses consumer preferences to analyze the development of TV technology. They combined conjoint analysis (customer preference analysis) and Bass' diffusion model to estimate the market potential of large-screen TVs. However, they did not consider expert opinion and develop the future scenarios. In fact, TVs of many types exist and compete simultaneously, and thus consumer preference and expert opinion are very important in predicting the development of TV technologies. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives. Therefore, the present research question is how to consider consumer preference and expert opinion when analyzing the development of multigenerational technologies. We considered both customer and expert viewpoints when analyzing the development of cathode ray tube (CRT), liquid crystal display (LCD), and light-emitting diode (LED) TV technology in Taiwan. That is, we performed conjoint analysis to analyze customers' preferences and then combined these results in the scenario analysis. Based on expert opinion, we address possible scenarios for the development of the LED TV. Furthermore, we elaborate specific scenarios and then use the innovation diffusion model to forecast sales volume of CRT, LCD, and LED TVs for each scenario over the next 10 years. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the innovation diffusion model. Section 3 describes the methodology. Section 4 presents the empirical analysis. Section 5 discusses the results and presents conclusions.

Despite the importance of consumer preference and expert opinion to analyses of the development of multigenerational technologies, little existing research has integrated these two perspectives. Therefore, we proposed a four-stage method that combines conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovative diffusion model and used it to forecast the development of three main display technologies (CRT, LCD, and LED) in the Taiwanese market. We found that when buying a new TV, consumers consider TV type first. They prefer LED TVs, LCD TVs, OLED TVs, and CRT TVs, in that order. Then they consider price, size, and resolution. Internet access is the least important function. We developed scenarios of LED TV sales in Taiwan over the next 10 years with three axes of uncertainty: consumer demand and preference, breakthroughs in TV technology and function, and government policies and manufacturer strategies. We then forecasted the development of LED display technology under three scenarios: the most optimistic (stable growth), the most pessimistic (low saturation), and the most likely (bureaucracy). According to the multigenerational diffusion model, high consumer demand and rapid breakthroughs in display technology will enable the LED TV to surpass the LCD TV over the next 10 years, even if government policies are not in line with manufacturer's strategies. If government policies and manufacturer's strategies are in line, the LED TV will develop even more rapidly. In the most optimistic (stable growth) scenario, sales of LED TVs will grow quickly and will surpass that of LCD TVs in 2015, reaching 858,560 units in 2020. In the most pessimistic (low saturation) scenario, sales of LCD TVs will peak in 2009. Sales of LED TVs will grow slowly, and in 2020 the sales volume will only reach 361,784 units. In the most likely (bureaucracy) scenario, sales of LCD TVs will peak in 2010. Sales of LED TVs will surpass that of LCD TVs in 2017, reaching 657,186 units in 2020. The following limitations of the present research could be addressed in future studies. (1) Many types of growth models can be used to forecast the development of the latest technology or product. The present study adopted Norton and Bass' innovative diffusion model to predict the sales volume of TVs with different display technologies. Future researchers may consider adopting other forecasting models, such as the technological substitution model, to compare market share among display technologies. (2) 3D is another type of display (e.g., 3D LED TV, 3D LCD TV, 3D plasma display panel TV). Thus, whether 3D technology will affect the sales of LED TVs is an important issue that future researchers may take into consideration. (3) Because LED TV is the newest display technology, there are limited statistical data on LED TV sales. Therefore, we used estimates from experts to forecast the future development of this new display technology. Future researchers could forecast after 1 or 2 years and add another new technology, OLED TV, to obtain more data, which may make the results more reliable and valid.