تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه زیرساخت های حمل و نقل تا سال 2030 - مطالعه سناریو مبتنی بر دلفی

In this paper, we present the findings of a web-based real-time Delphi study concerning the factors which will influence the future development of the transport infrastructure until the year 2030. Intensifying globalization, increased urbanization, ongoing shortages in public finances, and the requirements of a more demanding and growing world population are some of the challenges, which global transport will face. This research identifies, assesses, and integrates long-range developments of various factors, such as supply and demand, financing, competitiveness, and sustainability, which will affect the future of the transport industry and its infrastructure. Results are presented in a final probable scenario, which is divided into four different scenario aspects. Moreover, managerial and governmental implications for strategy and policy development are discussed.

Transport infrastructure is the backbone of global trade and globalization. It provides crucial services, is a major force in society, and is the basis for planning investments in industry and trade [1] and [2]. Furthermore, the presence or absence of transport infrastructure has a significant effect on economic growth. Thus, the current global economic recovery is strongly dependent on the capacity of ports, highways, railways, and airports [3]. Infrastructure systems, such as roadway and railway networks, have commonly existed over a long period of time, which affects the inertia of the overall system [2]. Therefore, forward-looking planning processes are crucial to such systems' success. Disruptions to the systems, such as traffic congestion and time delays, reduce business profits, forcing companies to rethink their long, complex supply chains [3]. Consequently, companies as well as governments face tremendous challenges with respect to the future development of transport infrastructure. Demand-oriented transport infrastructure planning, as well as the provision of adequate financial resources, is crucial for the development of markets and economies. On a global level, by 2030 it is estimated that an investment of more than US$41 trillion (thereof US$7.8 trillion for roadway and railway, and US$1.6 trillion for air/sea-ports, period 2005–2030) will be required for infrastructure development to modernize obsolescent systems and meet expanding demand [4]. Furthermore, the OECD Report on Infrastructure 2006 states that during the period of 2010 to 2030, US$220–290 billion per annum will be required for the construction of road transport infrastructure, while the new construction of railway infrastructure will require US$49–58 billion per annum [5]. These figures impressively underline the importance of financial resources for future transport infrastructure development. Therefore, in this paper we address the questions: (1) How will financial aspects contribute to the future development of transport infrastructure? (2) How will the supply and demand of transport infrastructure evolve by 2030? While the basic supply of transport infrastructure and related financing strategies is essential to ordinary logistics and mobility demands, the challenge of international competitiveness in transport infrastructure is becoming more evident. Countries require a well-developed transport infrastructure to compete internationally and to provide a high level of accessibility in terms of traffic and goods flows [6]. We contribute to this topic via our third research question (3) How intense and relevant is the linkage between economic competitiveness and transport infrastructure in the year 2030? Furthermore, finding an acceptable balance between promoting economic growth, via expansion of transport infrastructure, and protecting the environment, will remain a critical issue in the future. While economic growth is often defined as a major objective, it is also critical to understand how projects will affect the environment [7]. Stakeholders, including decision makers in governmental institutions, infrastructure planning companies, as well as transport infrastructure users and operators, have widely understood that infrastructure can have a tremendous impact on the overall environment. This leads to our fourth research question: (4) How will aspects of sustainability affect the future development of transport infrastructure? Taking the highly dynamic and challenging environment into account, stakeholders cannot prepare for one single future to come. Decision makers have to consider many different variations of the possible future and take high uncertainty into account, for example uncertainties about future external developments in the long-term, future transportation demand, mode choices, and how these choices affect accessibility, environment, and safety [8]. A broad spectrum of possible future long-term developments has to be addressed with reasonable approaches and valid methodologies, enabling broad planning perspectives [9] and [10]. One of the most adequate methods for addressing possible future developments, long-term planning and decision making in uncertain situations is the scenario planning approach [11]. Many applications in science and practice underline that scenario planning presents one of the most appropriate long-term planning tools [12], [13] and [14]. The scenario planning method was developed to particularly support policy-makers and business leaders, facing decisions with uncertain future outcomes [15]. By analyzing our four research questions, we conclude with one probable future scenario – incorporating four different scenario aspects – addressing those conditions which are considered most likely to shape the future of transport infrastructure. The scenario aspects are based on the results of an Internet-based real-time Delphi survey [16] based upon earlier works of Gordon and Pease [17]. Our results support decision makers and planners in defining strategies or in testing the robustness and appropriateness of strategies that are already in place. Furthermore, we present managerial as well as governmental implications. The remainder of our paper is structured as follows: After providing an overview of the literature relevant to our research and identifying the research gap, we describe the research methodology. We present the results of our Delphi study as well as four individual scenario aspects. Finally, we conclude by delineating general governmental and especially managerial implications.

Our research closes a research gap with respect to scenario development in the transportation infrastructure industry on a global perspective. We were guided by the question: (1) How will financial aspects contribute to the future development of transport infrastructure? This research revealed that transport infrastructure systems are likely to remain imperfect, while transport infrastructure development will focus on urban areas. Therefore, transport infrastructure operators, users and owners should be prepared to operate in imperfect transport infrastructure systems and therefore need to have flexible planning structures. Simultaneously, we addressed the question: (2) How will the supply and demand of transport infrastructure evolve by 2030? Our research demonstrated that the availability of adequate financing concepts for transport infrastructure strongly differs according to the type of investments. Thus, road tolls and congestion charges will be the most appropriate forms of financial sourcing. Since governments will be in charge of transport infrastructure procurement, they will have to identify and assess new financing models for transport infrastructure in order to realize a sustainable basis for future development. Furthermore, we questioned: (3) How intense and relevant is the linkage between economic competitiveness and transport infrastructure in the year 2030? The integration of transport infrastructure, information and communication technologies, as well as collaboration concepts will be a key competitive factor. In order for governments to safeguard economic competitiveness, they must maintain, upgrade and expand transport infrastructure. For infrastructure operators, users and owners, it will become essential to actively collaborate with governments and agencies. Finally we were guided by the research question (4) How will aspects of sustainability affect the future development of transport infrastructure? In 2030, transport infrastructure will increasingly be evaluated according to environmental compatibleness, in addition to its ability to stimulate economic growth. When policy makers and business makers assess the environmental compatibility of transport infrastructure solutions, both harmful environmental effects and positive environmental benefits need to be considered. Furthermore, the total costs of the entire lifecycle of transport infrastructure: including construction, operation and deconstruction, has to be taken into account. By conducting Delphi-based scenario research, expert knowledge could be aggregated to identify four substantiated scenario aspects. These scenario aspects can be used to update or develop new strategies or to test existing strategies regarding their future-robustness and adequacy. Our work makes manifold contributions: (1) by providing independent, complementary and probable scenario aspects that can be used as a basis and starting point particularly for corporate, but also for political strategy development; (2) by identifying implications of various challenges in the disciplines of policy and business making; (3) and by introducing a systematic approach, the PEST analysis, to support Delphi study results. Our research can be applied to managerial situations, for example in generating planning prerequisites and exemplifying systematic and methodologically-sound scenario development. The scenario data offers a starting point to customize specific long-term corporate strategies. For organizations already investing in environmental scanning, the Delphi data can provide validation or expansion of their own scans. A scenario transfer, for example using scenarios to support in decision-making, may be either active or passive. While the former concerns updating or developing new strategies, the latter refers to testing existing strategies regarding their robustness. Corporate planners may use our data as a basis for an extended strategic analysis and the establishment or support of a scenario management system. Our research activities and results also have limitations. First, the number of surveyed projections was limited to 15. Certainly, additional projections relevant for the future of transport infrastructure could be addressed. Nevertheless, we narrowed the number of projections to such a small number in order to increase data validity by ensuring low survey fatigue. Future research could address those projections which may have been left unanswered. Second, we pursued the objective to capture a global perspective on conditions considered to shape the future of transport infrastructure. However, in order to design future transport infrastructure, it would be necessary to conduct subsequent research on a regional level based on our research results. Third, we concentrated on presenting probable future developments, but did not study wild cards and the desirable scenario in more detail. Particular attention to wild cards and various desirable developments, for example a desirable scenario, might be suitable for future research. Thus, our research results shall open a new avenue for future research.