یکپارچه سازی دلفی و پس نگری مشارکتی در دستیابی به اعتماد - در مورد تحرک الکتریکی در آلمان

Backcasting is an established approach to assess the creation and realisation of desirable futures, being especially suitable for complex issues where a radical change is required. A variety of methods is used to execute backcasting exercises with broad stakeholder participation. However, due to certain group inefficiencies it is a challenge to execute backcasting exercises in a participatory and yet rigorous and trustworthy way. We present an innovative participatory backcasting approach, integrating a Delphi survey and semi-structured interviews for electric mobility in Germany. As a major contribution, we demonstrate how to increase trustworthiness in participatory backcasting, by allowing for continuous stakeholder participation in a structured and transparent manner: from the creation of a preferable future to the assessment of the major factors leading to this future. The results illustrate a future vision of electric mobility in Germany in the year 2030 and present a discussion of the major factors leading to this desirable future. In addition to presenting the major benefits of our approach by integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting, we also outline the challenges related to this approach, such as difficulties in developing detailed roadmaps or the limited inclusion of end-users as major stakeholders.

Backcasting is an established approach to assess a desirable future, with focus on discovery, rather than justification [1] and [2]. The method is suitable when envisioning an alternative future which is discontinuous from the rather unsustainable status quo. Therefore, backcasting is identified as a useful approach in the pursuit of sustainable development [1], [3], [4] and [5]. A key benefit of applying backcasting is the ability to examine a structure to realise this future [1]. Nevertheless, there are several challenges in the application of backcasting: The soundness of the research process developing future images and a desirable future in a participatory manner is very often difficult to judge, leading to an insufficient trustworthiness of the process [e.g. [6] and [7]]. Backcasting is used in various sustainable development topics, such as backcasting energy futures by Giurco et al. [1], energy use in buildings by Svenfelt et al. [4] or sustainable development of cities by Höjer et al. [8]. The future of sustainable mobility, by applying a participatory backcasting approach, has been discussed in very few cases in most recent published research. One example for such a backcasting study is from Hickman and Banister [9], which concentrates on developing transport policy packages for the UK in 2030. In this backcasting study, focus groups are the prevalent participatory method to gain qualitative insights from experts. However, such classical group discussion methods face certain group inefficiencies, such as the dominance of certain opinion leaders. The main goal of this paper is to present a novel and rigorous qualitative backcasting approach, by involving multiple stakeholders in establishing the image of a desirable future and bridging the gap between the present and this desirable future. We base our methodological advancement on a participatory backcasting approach that comprises a Delphi survey and semi-structured interviews. We apply the concept of trustworthiness from Guba and Lincoln [10] in order to pursuit rigour in our qualitative research. The focus of our research is: How can the rigour of qualitative participatory backcasting be improved? After introducing participatory backcasting and the notion of trustworthiness we compare a set of participatory backcasting approaches which include multiple stakeholders in the process in order to determine the limitations in current research. We then demonstrate that by integrating a Delphi approach and multi-stakeholder interviews into a backcasting study, we can address a complex problem in a rigorous and trustworthy manner (Section 2). We develop a pathway-oriented participatory backcasting process. By introducing the single steps, we explain the detailed rationale behind integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting (Section 3). Our backcasting approach is then applied to the case of electric mobility in Germany (Section 4). This country was selected because it conducts manifold research and development activities in the automotive industry and the government enforces electric mobility [e.g. 11]. The goal of the case study is to develop a future vision for electric mobility as well as to identify and discuss relevant factors for this desirable future. By doing so, we enable decision makers to account for the challenges concerning the future of electric mobility. After an assessment of the trustworthiness dimensions (Section 5) we provide conclusions (Section 6).

The aim of our study was to describe an innovative participatory backcasting approach that improves trustworthiness. For this purpose, we first provided an overview of existing participatory backcasting approaches, showing the different methods and highlighting areas of improvement with a special focus on qualitative stakeholder involvement. In our approach, we conducted a standardised real-time Delphi survey, comparable semi-structured interviews, and performed systematic coding not only of the qualitative Delphi arguments, but also of the interviews. With regard to the four trustworthiness dimensions, Table 6 presents the strategies we employed in order to enhance the trustworthiness of our participatory backcasting approach. Concerning these four trustworthiness dimensions, we were able to improve especially the dimensions dependability and transferability. According to Van de Ven and Delpbecq [77] as well as Landeta et al. [18], the Delphi method is much better able to overcome bandwagon or halo effects than classical group communication methods, such as focus groups. Therefore, we employed a Policy Delphi approach in order to account for these insights. The transferability and therefore trustworthiness of our backcasting approach could be additionally enhanced: our findings show a high degree of similarity with the findings of Oltra and Saint Jean's recent research and their literature-based case for the French automotive industry [114]. The level of impact of a backcasting study and the follow-up prospects of such a study also enhance the trustworthiness. Referring to Quist et al.'s [3] list of internal and external enabling factors, we were able to increase the chances for a sufficient follow-up of the study significantly. In addition to the numerous benefits, there are some limitations to our backcasting approach. An initial aim of the study was to develop measures that are linked to a concrete point in time. Due to the fact that many different topics and a variety of stakeholders were included in the study, many issues were covered rather broadly. Other authors indicate a similar limitation to their work, such as Svenfelt et al. [4]: it is often a challenge to develop detailed and specific pathways or roadmaps to the desirable vision [also compare [37] and [112]]. Therefore, neither in the backcasting exercise nor in the follow-up step was it possible to develop detailed pathways towards the desired future. Rather, the major factors were discussed without using a specified timeline. Additionally, end-users were only included indirectly in the backcasting study via market research companies. Future research could attempt to also include end-users as a major stakeholder group in such a survey. Moreover, the broad range of opinions from a high number of participants in the Delphi survey and interviews and the diverse sample did not allow for a consensus in all cases, for example when developing the vision or elaborating on measures that need to be taken in order to reach the desirable vision. Finally, the follow-up activities were sometimes difficult to evaluate since we could not obtain information concerning the results of internal corporate workshops due to competitive reasons. Future research endeavours could combine several parallel Delphi studies, in which different stakeholder groups assess similar future projections independently from one another. The insights from these parallel Delphis could be combined to formulate an overall insight afterwards [121]. Another promising field of research might be the further refinement and standardisation of the interview step in qualitative participatory backcasting approaches.