تجزیه و تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان ترکیبی و بهینه سازی برای سیستم ساختاری فضاپیما با پارامترهای تصادفی و فازی

In aerospace engineering, the incomplete environment conditions have been realized to be a significant factor affecting the system safety assessment. Considering the hybrid random and fuzzy uncertainties in system inputs, the paper proposes a novel numerical procedure for reliability analysis and reliability-based optimization. Random parameters are adopted to denote the aleatory uncertainties with sufficient sample information; whereas fuzzy parameters are used to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with expert opinions. Using the level-cut operation, fuzzy parameters are converted into interval variables, and a satisfaction degree-based interval ranking strategy is utilized to precisely quantify the interval safety possibility. Then the system safety possibility is calculated by the multiple integral, where cut levels of different fuzzy parameters are treated as independent variables. Subsequently based on the given safety index, a hybrid reliability optimization model is established. To avoid the huge computational burden caused by nested-loop optimization, a modified interval Monte Carlo method (MIMC) is proposed for limit state function evaluation. Eventually, a numerical example about the refractory ceramics tile of spacecraft verifies the feasibility of proposed method for hybrid reliability analysis and optimization design in practical aerospace engineering.