تجزیه و تحلیل سناریو نفوذ فناوری متلاشی کننده در سیستم انرژی در تایلند

Since the idea of disruptive technologies has been discussed recently in the energy sector, these advanced technologies would transform the future of energy system. However, this paradigm shift might have great impacts on the countries that depend on the import of energy and technologies. To understand how the energy sector in these countries would change under this trend, Thailand was selected as a case study to analyze changes in its energy sector. In the analysis, 2 different scenarios, which are the reference (business as usual) scenario and the disruptive technology scenario, are compared. The reference scenario assumes the current Thailand energy plan or Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB) is continued, while the disruptive technology (DTECH) scenario is a projection of where exponential growth of potential disruptive technologies—electric vehicle (EV), energy storage system, and solar photovoltaic—are introduced to the energy sector. The results of this study show that the high penetration of disruptive technologies in DTECH scenario will decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 37 million tCO2eq or 8.9% compared with the TIEB scenario; such reduction is observed in the transportation sector for 7 million tCO2eq and the power sector for 30 million tCO2eq. Moreover, the results show that EVs require appropriated management of EV charging period; otherwise they may not provide enough benefit on energy system and GHG emission reduction. Hence, EVs should be promoted as an alternative fuel to replace the use of oil in the transportation sector in Thailand, and policy makers have to re-shape portfolio of power generation mix to avoid negative effect on additional primary energy requirement and increasing of GHG emission.