دوران رونق منابع، رشد بهره وری و نرخ ارز واقعی پویا - تجزیه و تحلیل پویای متوازن عمومی در آفریقای جنوبی

This paper studies the impact of a natural resource boom on structural change and real exchange rate dynamics, taking into account the indirect effect that operates through relative sectoral productivity changes. The paper's contribution to the Dutch disease literature is threefold. First, I extend the simple learning by doing productivity specification to include trade barriers and technology gap dynamics, consistent with the modern treatment of productivity growth. Second, I present a dynamic general equilibrium analysis that incorporates imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Third, I apply the model to South Africa and analyze the macroeconomic impact of increases in gold prices during the 1970s. Political pressure for rapid domestic spending following a surge in resource rents tends to generate myopic government behavior with immediate expansion of government consumption. The model specification captures this fiscal response to higher resource income. Numerical simulations show how the resource boom can help explain the paths of structural change and real exchange rates observed in South Africa. Because of productivity effects, gradual real depreciation follows an initial appreciation of the real exchange rate.

Existing Dutch disease analyses typically relate productivity improvements to learning by doing. Van Wijnbergen (1984) investigates the impact of a resource boom in a two-period model, and shows that productivity effects generate real depreciation following an initial appreciation of the real exchange rate. Torvik (2001) finds similar results in a more general setting. In this paper, I present a dynamic general equilibrium analysis of an increase in resource income. The paper's contribution to the literature is threefold. First, the productivity specification is consistent with modern treatments in which productivity growth is related to trade barriers and technology gap dynamics. Incorporating technology transfer as a source of productivity growth strengthens the productivity effect of a resource boom, and generates additional implications for real exchange rate dynamics and structural change. Second, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods endogenizes the tradable price and affects the real exchange rate path. Third, I apply the model to South Africa and analyze the macroeconomic impact of the increases in gold prices during the 1970s. Numerical simulations show how the resource boom in the 1970s contributes to the structural change and the real exchange rate path observed in South Africa in subsequent decades. Higher public consumption following the boom leads to real exchange rate appreciation and expansion of nontradables at the cost of the industrial sector. Relative industrial productivity growth declines and the change in relative productivity has feedback effects on the economic structure and real exchange rate dynamics. A gradual real depreciation follows the initial appreciation of the real exchange rate, which is broadly consistent with the South African experience following the gold price boom. The productivity effect also tends to hold back the deindustrialization process. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the literature; Section 3 describes the South African experience from 1963 to 2003; Section 4 presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous productivity dynamics; Section 5 investigates the impact of the 1970s resource boom on the real exchange rate and structural change in South Africa; Section 6 presents a sensitivity analysis with respect to the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods; and Section 7 concludes the paper.

This paper examined the macroeconomic impact of the gold price boom of the 1970s on the South African economy. I applied a dynamic general equilibrium analysis to clarify the adjustment mechanisms related to higher resource income. The model specification captured the endogenous interaction between sectoral productivity, structural change, and real exchange rate dynamics. Important features of the model were endogenous productivity, a myopic fiscal response to higher resource income, and imperfect substitution in tradables. Numerical simulations showed how the resource boom explained the observed paths of structural change and the real exchange rate in South Africa. Increased public consumption following the boom caused a real exchange rate appreciation and led to an expansion of services at the cost of the industrial tradable sector. Structural change affected sectoral learning by doing and the extent of trade barriers (through lower trade share as the nontradable sector expanded). Relative industrial productivity decreased, and led to gradual real depreciation following the initial appreciation of the real exchange rate. During the period under study, South Africa faced changing trade conditions because of international sanctions against the Apartheid regime. While they may have affected the real exchange rate path and structural adjustments, they were not incorporated in this analysis. Instead, I focused on the effect of the gold price boom, both directly and indirectly via the relative productivity between domestic sectors. Future research should investigate the importance of sanctions in this setting.